Sandefjord vs Viking: Viking Draw No Bet
Viking's away expected goals sit at 1.5 versus Sandefjord's 0.8, and the model rates Viking's chance to avoid defeat at 80 %. The recent form and head‑to‑head record back a safe Viking draw‑no‑bet.
Both clubs enter the clash with contrasting recent runs – Sandefjord have clawed a single win from four defeats, while Viking have collected three wins and a draw in their last five. The fixture pits a defensively porous Sandefjord side against a Viking outfit that has been scoring consistently on the road.
Lars's Verdict
Viking’s combined win‑and‑draw probability of 80 % makes the draw‑no‑bet the most reliable selection.
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With Sandefjord averaging 0.8 expected goals and Viking averaging 1.5, the model gives a 57.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 42.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (Sandefjord 0.8 + Viking 1.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Sandefjord at 20.0%, the draw at 26.2%, and Viking at 53.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 15.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Sandefjord
Sandefjord’s last five league results read L‑L‑L‑L‑W, highlighted by a 2‑1 loss away to Viking and a 0‑3 home defeat to Bodo/Glimt. Their solitary win came 2‑1 away at Sarpsborg 08 FF. The string of defeats and low scoring output reinforce a limited threat, supporting the view that they are unlikely to overturn the result.
Viking
Viking have posted W‑D‑W‑W‑L in their previous five games, including a 3‑0 away win over Start and a 2‑1 home victory against Sarpsborg 08 FF. The only slip was a 1‑2 loss at Rosenborg. Four wins out of five demonstrate a potent attack that aligns with the model’s 1.5 expected goals, indicating they are well‑positioned to avoid defeat.
Head-to-Head
All five recorded meetings have been won by Viking, with the most recent 2‑1 victory on 18 July 2026. This unblemished record further confirms Viking’s dominance and backs the draw‑no‑bet pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2026 | Viking 2-1 Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| 10 Aug 2025 | Sandefjord 1-2 Viking | Eliteserien |
| 16 May 2025 | Viking 3-1 Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Viking 3-2 Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| 20 May 2024 | Sandefjord 0-3 Viking | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
Sandefjord: D. Koswal (Injury), F. Loftesnes-Bjune (Thigh Injury), M. Melchior (Knee Injury), N. Moller (Injury)
Viking: A. Baertelsen (Foot Injury), V. Berisha (Thigh Injury), M. Roseth (Knee Injury), A. Cosic (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Sandefjord vs Viking?
Sandefjord and Viking drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Viking Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Sandefjord vs Viking?
Sandefjord 1-1 Viking (full time).
When was Sandefjord vs Viking?
Sandefjord played Viking on Fri 4 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Eliteserien at Jotun Arena.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →With Viking’s superior xG and a recent run of three wins and a draw, the odds heavily favour them avoiding defeat at Sandefjord.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
