SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg: Over 2.5 goals
Altach average three goals at home while Hartberg have yet to find the net away this season. The model rates the match at an 80.5% chance of more than 2.5 goals.
Both sides come into the fixture with contrasting recent fortunes – Altach have shown they can score, Hartberg have struggled to break the dead‑lock. The clash pits Altach's home scoring firepower against a Hartberg defence that has conceded once per game on the road.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns an 80.5% probability to more than 2.5 goals, driven by Altach's 3.0 xG at home and Hartberg's 1.35 xG on the road.
Show the maths
With SCR Altach averaging 3.0 expected goals and TSV Hartberg averaging 1.35, the model gives a 70.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 29.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 4.3 (SCR Altach 3.0 + TSV Hartberg 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 80.5% chance against 19.5% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has SCR Altach at 70.4%, the draw at 14.9%, and TSV Hartberg at 14.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 7.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
SCR Altach
Altach's recent league form reads L‑W‑L, highlighted by a 0‑1 loss to Rapid Vienna away, a 3‑1 home win over WSG Wattens, and a 0‑1 defeat at Sturm Graz. Scoring three against Wattens shows they can hit the 3‑goal mark, which supports the expectation of multiple goals in this game.
TSV Hartberg
Hartberg have recorded two consecutive league defeats: 0‑1 away at Red Bull Salzburg and 0‑2 at home to Sturm Graz. Both matches ended without Hartberg scoring, underscoring their current lack of offensive output but not offsetting Altach's firepower for the over‑2.5 goal outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, there have been four draws (0‑0, 2‑2, 1‑1, 0‑0) and a single Hartberg 2‑0 win, indicating generally tight games but also the capacity for multiple goals, aligning with the over‑2.5 prediction.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach | Bundesliga |
| 25 Oct 2025 | SCR Altach 2-2 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 4 May 2025 | TSV Hartberg 2-0 SCR Altach | Bundesliga |
| 19 Apr 2025 | SCR Altach 1-1 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 23 Feb 2025 | SCR Altach 0-0 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
SCR Altach 1-2 TSV Hartberg (full time).
When was SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
SCR Altach played TSV Hartberg on Sat 22 Aug · 16:00 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Cashpoint-Arena.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →Combined, the teams’ expected‑goal totals sum to 4.35, well above the 2.5‑goal threshold, making an open, high‑scoring game the most probable outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
