SK Brann vs Rosenborg: No clear edge
SK Brann sit on a 1.6 xG advantage at home while Rosenborg scrape only 0.5 away xG. Our model backs Brann at 64.6% to take all three points, but the market offers no clear value.
Both teams arrive with contrasting recent runs – Brann have been erratic, Rosenborg are on a three‑game winning streak. The Norwegian champions will look to cement their rise, while Brann aim to snap a wobble that has seen them drop points at home.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 24.2% draw probability versus the market’s 25% implied means there is no statistically significant advantage to any specific outcome.
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With SK Brann averaging 1.6 expected goals and Rosenborg averaging 0.5, the model gives a 68.6% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 31.4% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.1 (SK Brann 1.6 + Rosenborg 0.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has SK Brann at 64.6%, the draw at 24.2%, and Rosenborg at 11.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 19.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
SK Brann
Brann’s recent league form of LLWWL includes a 2‑1 win over Start at home and a 2‑1 victory away at Molde, showing they can break down strong opponents. However, a 2‑3 loss to Valerenga at home and a 1‑2 defeat to Sarpsborg 08 highlight defensive fragility, suggesting the home side may concede while still finding the net.
Rosenborg
Rosenborg have surged with three straight wins – a 3‑0 home thrashing of Kristiansund, a 3‑0 away win at Start, and a 4‑0 home demolition of Fredrikstad – underscoring an attacking edge. Their only blemish is a 0‑2 away loss to KFUM Oslo, indicating they can be vulnerable on the road, but the recent clean‑sheet streak points to a solid defensive record.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Brann have won three (including a 3‑0 home win in May 2024) while Rosenborg have managed two draws, the most recent being a 1‑1 stalemate in April 2026 – a pattern that favours Brann’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Rosenborg 1-1 Brann | Eliteserien |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Rosenborg 2-3 Brann | Eliteserien |
| 11 May 2025 | Brann 0-0 Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Rosenborg 1-2 Brann | Eliteserien |
| 4 May 2024 | Brann 3-0 Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
SK Brann: N. Boakye (Knee Injury), S. Opsahl (Foot Injury), J. Torsvik (Ankle Injury), E. Gudmundsson (Knee Injury)
Rosenborg: D. Islamovic (Leg Injury), S. Nordli (Injury), E. Slordal (Leg Injury), A. F. Witry (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won SK Brann vs Rosenborg?
SK Brann won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was No clear edge.
What was the final score of SK Brann vs Rosenborg?
SK Brann 3-2 Rosenborg (full time).
When was SK Brann vs Rosenborg?
SK Brann played Rosenborg on Sun 2 Aug · 18:15 BST in the Eliteserien at Brann Stadion.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →With Brann’s win probability at 64.6% and the draw only 24.2%, the market’s 4.0 price for a draw (25% implied) offers no statistical edge, leaving the home side as the clear favorite but without a betting advantage.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
