ST Johnstone vs Celtic: Celtic to win
Celtic head to an away game with a 5.0 xG average, while Johnstone sit at 4.0 xG. The model backs Celtic at 49.8% to win versus Johnstone’s 28.7%, making the result pick the clearest edge.
Both sides come into the match on divergent recent runs – Johnstone have scraped a single win from four outings, whereas Celtic have racked up four straight victories. The disparity in form and the stark home‑away xG split set the stage for a one‑sided encounter.
Hamish's Verdict
Celtic’s 49.8% win probability and superior away xG of 5.0 outweigh Johnstone’s 28.7% chance, pointing to a straightforward victory for the visitors.
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With ST Johnstone averaging 4.0 expected goals and Celtic averaging 5.0, the model gives a 88.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 11.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 9.0 (ST Johnstone 4.0 + Celtic 5.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 90.6% chance against 9.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has ST Johnstone at 28.7%, the draw at 12.7%, and Celtic at 49.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-4 at 3.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
ST Johnstone
Johnstone’s recent form reads W‑L‑L‑D, highlighted by a 4‑3 home win over Kilmarnock and a 1‑1 draw at Dundee. The narrow win and draw against modest opposition underline their limited firepower, which supports a low probability of resisting Celtic’s attack.
Celtic
Celtic sit on a WWWW run, with a 1‑0 home win over Dundee, a 5‑1 away thrashing of Kilmarnock, a 2‑1 home victory over Falkirk, and a 3‑0 home win over Aberdeen. Scoring five, two, three and one goal respectively, this run demonstrates a potent attack that underpins the model’s confidence in a Celtic win.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head favours Celtic, who have won four of the last five meetings, including a 5‑0 win on 20 April 2025 and a 6‑0 victory on 28 September 2024. The sole Johnstone win (1‑0 on 6 April 2025) is an outlier, reinforcing the expectation of a Celtic victory.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-5 Celtic | FA Cup |
| 6 Apr 2025 | ST Johnstone 1-0 Celtic | Premiership |
| 29 Dec 2024 | Celtic 4-0 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 28 Sep 2024 | ST Johnstone 0-6 Celtic | Premiership |
| 16 Mar 2024 | Celtic 3-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
ST Johnstone: No notable injury concerns on record.
Celtic: A. Johnston (Inactive), Jota (Knee Injury), A. Oxlade-Chamberlain (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won ST Johnstone vs Celtic?
Celtic won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Celtic to win.
What was the final score of ST Johnstone vs Celtic?
ST Johnstone 0-1 Celtic (full time).
When was ST Johnstone vs Celtic?
ST Johnstone played Celtic on Wed 9 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at McDiarmid Park.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →Given Celtic’s attacking firepower and Johnstone’s porous defence, the most logical outcome is a Celtic win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
