ST Johnstone vs Falkirk: Johnstone Draw No Bet
Johnstone average 2.0 expected goals at home while Falkirk manage only 0.7 away. The model gives them a 67.9% win chance and a combined 87.9% chance to avoid defeat.
Both sides come into this Scottish Premiership clash on opposite trajectories – Johnstone have been inconsistent but still produce goals at home, whereas Falkirk have struggled to find the net on the road.
Hamish's Verdict
The model’s win (67.9%) plus draw (20.0%) probability totals 87.9%, meaning Johnstone should stay unbeaten on the day.
Show the maths
With ST Johnstone averaging 2.0 expected goals and Falkirk averaging 0.7, the model gives a 56.5% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 43.5% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.7 (ST Johnstone 2.0 + Falkirk 0.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has ST Johnstone at 67.9%, the draw at 20.0%, and Falkirk at 12.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
ST Johnstone
Johnstone’s recent run includes a 0‑1 loss at ST Mirren and a 2‑1 home victory over Hibernian. The win demonstrates they can score and protect a narrow lead, while the loss shows vulnerability, reinforcing why a win or draw is more likely than a loss.
Falkirk
Falkirk have drawn 0‑0 with Motherwell and 1‑1 with Dundee Utd on the road, each game yielding few chances. Their inability to convert these draws into wins supports the view that they are unlikely to overturn Johnstone’s advantage.
Head-to-Head
In their last two meetings Johnstone lost 0‑1 in 2025 but won 1‑0 in 2018, indicating a balanced historical rivalry that does not contradict the current model’s lean towards a Johnstone unbeaten result.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-1 Falkirk | Friendlies Clubs |
| 24 Jul 2018 | ST Johnstone 1-0 Falkirk | League Cup |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win ST Johnstone vs Falkirk?
Johnstone Draw No Bet. The model’s win (67.9%) plus draw (20.0%) probability totals 87.9%, meaning Johnstone should stay unbeaten on the day.
What does the model give ST Johnstone vs Falkirk?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives ST Johnstone a 67.9% chance, the draw 20.0%, and Falkirk 12.1% to win.
When is ST Johnstone vs Falkirk?
ST Johnstone play Falkirk on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at McDiarmid Park.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →With the model assigning a combined 87.9% probability to a Johnstone win or draw, the draw‑no‑bet market offers a clear edge.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
