ST Johnstone vs Hibernian: Both teams to score – Yes
Johnstone's 4.0 xG at home meets Hibernian's 2.0 away xG, and both sides have been involved in high‑scoring games recently. The model rates the chance of both teams finding the net at 83 %.
Johnstone host Hibernian in the opening weekend of the Scottish Premiership, and both clubs arrive with contrasting recent runs – Johnstone have been vulnerable at the back, while Hibs have been efficient up front.
Hamish's Verdict
The model’s 83 % probability for both sides scoring, backed by Johnstone’s 4.0 xG at home and Hibs’ 2.0 away xG, makes this a clear pick.
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With ST Johnstone averaging 4.0 expected goals and Hibernian averaging 2.0, the model gives a 83.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 17.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 6.0 (ST Johnstone 4.0 + Hibernian 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 91.6% chance against 8.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has ST Johnstone at 70.9%, the draw at 12.2%, and Hibernian at 14.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-1 at 5.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
ST Johnstone
Johnstone’s last five league results (W‑L‑L) include a 4‑3 home win over Kilmarnock, where they scored four and still allowed three, and a 0‑1 away loss to Mirren that highlighted defensive lapses. The high‑scoring win and the narrow defeat together show a team that both creates and concedes chances, reinforcing the expectation of them scoring in the upcoming fixture.
Hibernian
Hibernian’s recent run of L‑W‑W features a 2‑1 away win at Rangers and another 2‑1 away victory over Dundee, each game seeing them score twice while keeping the opposition to a single goal. Those back‑to‑back scoring performances demonstrate a clear ability to find the net on the road, supporting the BTTS pick.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, three have featured goals from both sides – notably the 2024‑04‑06 1‑2 win for Johnstone and the 2024‑04‑27 1‑3 loss – indicating a strong tendency for both teams to score.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar 2025 | Hibernian 3-0 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2 Jan 2025 | ST Johnstone 1-1 Hibernian | Premiership |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Hibernian 2-0 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 27 Apr 2024 | ST Johnstone 1-3 Hibernian | Premiership |
| 6 Apr 2024 | Hibernian 1-2 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won ST Johnstone vs Hibernian?
ST Johnstone won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – Yes.
What was the final score of ST Johnstone vs Hibernian?
ST Johnstone 2-1 Hibernian (full time).
When was ST Johnstone vs Hibernian?
ST Johnstone played Hibernian on Sun 6 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at McDiarmid Park.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →Given the combined goal threat and the defensive frailties displayed, the most logical read is that both teams will hit the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
