ST Mirren vs Celtic: Celtic Draw No Bet
Celtic arrive in Glasgow with a 5.0 expected‑goals rate versus Mirren’s 2.0, and the model assigns a 76.3% chance of a Celtic win. The numbers point to a very high probability that Celtic will come out on top without risking a draw.
Both sides come in on contrasting recent runs – Mirren have been unbeaten in their last four league outings, while Celtic have secured three straight victories. The disparity in away scoring power, combined with a recent 6‑2 drubbing at Mirren’s ground, sets the stage for a one‑sided encounter.
Hamish's Verdict
Celtic’s win odds of 76.3% versus Mirren’s 8.6% translate to roughly a 90% chance that Celtic either wins or the match is voided on a draw, making the DNB market the clear choice.
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With ST Mirren averaging 2.0 expected goals and Celtic averaging 5.0, the model gives a 80.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 20.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 7.0 (ST Mirren 2.0 + Celtic 5.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 90.2% chance against 9.8% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has ST Mirren at 8.6%, the draw at 8.2%, and Celtic at 76.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-4 at 4.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
ST Mirren
Mirren have not lost in their last four league games, beating Partick 1‑0 at home, Falkirk 2‑0 away, and St Johnstone 1‑0 at home before a 3‑3 home draw with Motherwell. The three clean‑sheet wins show defensive solidity, yet the modest scoring rate of two goals per game suggests they lack the fire‑power to trouble Celtic’s prolific attack, reinforcing the low win probability for Mirren.
Celtic
Celtic have collected three straight league wins, including a 1‑0 home victory over Dundee, a dominant 5‑1 away win at Kilmarnock, and a 2‑1 home success versus Falkirk. Scoring five in one outing highlights their scoring depth, confirming the model’s 5.0 expected‑goals figure and the high likelihood of a Celtic win.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent meeting on 19 April 2026 Celtic thumped Mirren 6‑2 at Glasgow, and earlier that season Celtic won 1‑0 on 11 April 2026. These results show Celtic’s clear superiority in head‑to‑head play, supporting the expectation of a Celtic victory.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Celtic 6-2 ST Mirren | FA Cup |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Celtic 1-0 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 14 Dec 2025 | ST Mirren 3-1 Celtic | League Cup |
| 22 Nov 2025 | ST Mirren 0-1 Celtic | Premiership |
| 3 Aug 2025 | Celtic 1-0 ST Mirren | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
ST Mirren: No notable injury concerns on record.
Celtic: A. Johnston (Inactive), Jota (Knee Injury), A. Oxlade-Chamberlain (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won ST Mirren vs Celtic?
Celtic won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Celtic Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of ST Mirren vs Celtic?
ST Mirren 1-2 Celtic (full time).
When was ST Mirren vs Celtic?
ST Mirren played Celtic on Sat 5 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at The SMISA Stadium.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →Given the overwhelming win probability and the negligible chance of a draw, the safest bet is to back Celtic on a draw‑no‑bet basis.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
