ST Mirren vs Motherwell: Motherwell to win
Motherwell's 2.0 expected goals eclipse Mirren's 1.0, and the model backs a 60.5% chance of an away win. The head‑to‑head record and recent form underline the same conclusion.
Both sides come into the fixture with contrasting recent results – Mirren have collected three straight wins, while Motherwell sit on a win‑and‑draw in their last two outings. The clash pits a solid defensive home side against an away outfit that has been scoring at twice the rate of their hosts.
Hamish's Verdict
The model assigns a 60.5% probability to an away victory, driven by Motherwell's superior expected goals and recent scoring form.
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With ST Mirren averaging 1.0 expected goals and Motherwell averaging 2.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (ST Mirren 1.0 + Motherwell 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has ST Mirren at 18.3%, the draw at 21.2%, and Motherwell at 60.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
ST Mirren
Mirren have won their last three league matches – 1‑0 at home versus Partick, 2‑0 away at Falkirk, and 1‑0 at home versus St Johnstone. This run of clean‑sheet victories shows a disciplined defence but a modest scoring output, suggesting they are unlikely to overturn Motherwell's superior firepower.
Motherwell
Motherwell's recent form includes a 2‑1 away win over Hibernian and a 0‑0 home draw with Falkirk. The win demonstrates their ability to find the net on the road, while the draw underlines a solid, if not prolific, away defence – both traits that favour a win at Mirren.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Motherwell have won twice (2‑0 on 3 Jan 2026 and 5‑0 on 21 Feb 2026), drawn twice (0‑0 and 2‑2), and lost once (1‑4). The two recent victories reinforce the expectation of an away win for Motherwell.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | ST Mirren 0-5 Motherwell | Premiership |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Motherwell 2-0 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Motherwell 1-4 ST Mirren | League Cup |
| 9 Aug 2025 | ST Mirren 0-0 Motherwell | Premiership |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Motherwell 2-2 ST Mirren | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won ST Mirren vs Motherwell?
ST Mirren and Motherwell drew 3-3. Our pre-match pick was Motherwell to win.
What was the final score of ST Mirren vs Motherwell?
ST Mirren 3-3 Motherwell (full time).
When was ST Mirren vs Motherwell?
ST Mirren played Motherwell on Sun 30 Aug · 15:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at The SMISA Stadium.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →All the data points to Motherwell prevailing, making a straight win the most logical selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
