St Mirren vs St Johnstone: No clear edge
St Mirren host St Johnstone in a tightly matched Premiership clash, both sides averaging 1.35 expected goals. Our model rates the draw at 25.8% versus the market’s 27.8%, indicating no pricing advantage.
Both clubs arrive with recent winning form – Mirren with three wins in their last five and Johnstone unbeaten in their single recorded fixture – making the encounter a battle of confidence rather than desperation.
Hamish's Verdict
The model’s draw probability (25.8%) is lower than the market’s implied 27.8%, and other markets lack published odds, so none present a genuine value opportunity.
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With St Mirren averaging 1.35 expected goals and St Johnstone averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (St Mirren 1.35 + St Johnstone 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has St Mirren at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and St Johnstone at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
St Mirren
Mirren’s recent run reads W‑D‑D‑W‑W, highlighted by a 2‑0 away win over Aberdeen and a 2‑0 away victory at Falkirk. Those clean‑sheet wins show a capacity to dominate when they strike, reinforcing the model’s expectation of at least one goal from Mirren.
St Johnstone
Johnstone’s only listed recent result is a thrilling 4‑3 home win over Kilmarnock, demonstrating they can both score and concede heavily. That high‑scoring display underlines the model’s 1.35 expected‑goals rating for Johnstone.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Mirren have three wins and Johnstone two, with the most recent 3‑1 Mirren victory in October 2024, suggesting a slight historical edge for Mirren but no decisive pattern for the draw.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2025 | ST Mirren 0-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 14 Dec 2024 | ST Johnstone 2-3 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 30 Oct 2024 | ST Mirren 3-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 24 Feb 2024 | ST Mirren 2-0 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 6 Dec 2023 | ST Johnstone 1-0 ST Mirren | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won St Mirren vs St Johnstone?
St Mirren won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was No clear edge.
What was the final score of St Mirren vs St Johnstone?
St Mirren 1-0 St Johnstone (full time).
When was St Mirren vs St Johnstone?
St Mirren played St Johnstone on Sat 8 Aug · 15:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at The SMISA Stadium.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →Given the balanced scoring outlook and the lack of a pricing edge on any market, the safest stance is to acknowledge the absence of a value bet rather than forcing a selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
