Start vs Brann: Brann to win
Start's 1.1 expected‑goals per game meets Brann's 2.1 expected‑goals, while the model assigns Brann a 60.3% win chance versus Start's 19.1%.
Both clubs come into the clash with contrasting recent form – Start have won two of their last five, Brann have also secured two wins but added a draw, keeping the match open despite the clear statistical edge for the visitors.
Lars's Verdict
Brann's 2.1 expected goals versus Start's 1.1, together with a 60.3% win probability, point to a clear away win.
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With Start averaging 1.1 expected goals and Brann averaging 2.1, the model gives a 58.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 41.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.2 (Start 1.1 + Brann 2.1) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 62.0% chance against 38.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Start at 19.1%, the draw at 20.5%, and Brann at 60.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 9.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Start
Start's recent five-game run reads W‑L‑L‑W‑L, highlighted by a 2‑1 away win over Kristiansund BK and a 4‑1 home triumph against KFUM Oslo. Both victories came with multiple goals, but the three defeats – including a 0‑3 loss to Viking and a 0‑1 home loss to Fredrikstad – show a volatile defense that struggles to keep clean sheets, reinforcing the difficulty of stopping Brann's attack in this fixture.
Brann
Brann's five-game sequence is W‑W‑D‑L, featuring a 3‑2 home win over Rosenborg and a dominant 3‑0 home victory against Ham‑Kam. The lone draw (0‑0 away at Sandefjord) and a recent 1‑2 home loss to Lillestrom illustrate that while they can be held, their overall scoring consistency remains high, supporting the view that they will likely find the net against Start.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Brann have won three (2‑1, 1‑0, 2‑0) and drawn twice (1‑1 on both 2020 dates), a record that aligns with the model's expectation of a Brann win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2026 | Brann 2-1 Start | Eliteserien |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Brann 1-0 Start | 1. Division |
| 7 Jul 2022 | Start 0-2 Brann | 1. Division |
| 9 Dec 2020 | Start 1-1 Brann | Eliteserien |
| 19 Jul 2020 | Brann 1-1 Start | Eliteserien |
Team News
Start: F. Lien (Foot Injury), J. Norheim (Arm Injury), K. Tonnesen (Leg Injury), J. Torkildsen (Chest Injury)
Brann: N. Boakye (Knee Injury), E. Gudmundsson (Injury), N. Kasanwirjo (Inactive), S. Opsahl (Foot Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Start vs Brann?
Brann to win. Brann's 2.1 expected goals versus Start's 1.1, together with a 60.3% win probability, point to a clear away win.
What does the model give Start vs Brann?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Start a 19.1% chance, the draw 20.5%, and Brann 60.3% to win.
When is Start vs Brann?
Start play Brann on Sun 13 Sep · 16:00 BST in the Eliteserien at TBC.
Are there any injury concerns for Start vs Brann?
Start: F. Lien (Foot Injury), J. Norheim (Arm Injury), K. Tonnesen (Leg Injury), J. Torkildsen (Chest Injury). Brann: N. Boakye (Knee Injury), E. Gudmundsson (Injury), N. Kasanwirjo (Inactive), S. Opsahl (Foot Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →The combination of Brann's superior away scoring rate and the model's 60.3% probability of a win makes a straightforward victory the most logical expectation.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
