Start vs Fredrikstad: Start to win
Start's 0.9 xG at home barely edges Fredrikstad's 0.8 xG away, and the model rates a Start win at 35.8 % – the clearest edge in this fixture.
Both clubs have struggled to find the net this season, but Start's recent home record and Fredrikstad's away defensive frailties set up a tight contest at the Sør Arena.
Lars's Verdict
Back Start to win, as the model assigns them the highest win probability (35.8 %) and their home xG (0.9) exceeds Fredrikstad’s away xG (0.8).
Show the maths
With Start averaging 0.9 expected goals and Fredrikstad averaging 0.8, the model gives a 67.3% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 32.7% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 1.7 (Start 0.9 + Fredrikstad 0.8) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 75.7% chance against 24.3% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Start at 35.8%, the draw at 34.0%, and Fredrikstad at 30.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 18.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Start
Start’s last five league results read LLLWL, highlighted by a 2‑1 away win at Kristiansund BK and a recent 0‑3 home loss to Viking. The solitary win shows they can scrape points, but three defeats in the previous four games underline a fragile attack – a factor that supports a low‑scoring, tight result and fuels the modest edge for a home win.
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad’s form of WLLLW includes a 1‑0 home win over Sandefjord and a 0‑4 away defeat at Rosenborg. Their lone recent victory came at home, while the heavy loss away highlights defensive weakness that aligns with the model’s low over‑2.5‑goals probability and suggests they may struggle to secure a win on the road.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Fredrikstad have won three times (including a 2‑1 win on 2026‑05‑29) and Start only once (1‑0 on 2022‑07‑31), indicating a slight historical tilt toward Fredrikstad, but the model still favours Start due to current xG metrics.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29 May 2026 | Fredrikstad 2-1 Start | Eliteserien |
| 3 Sep 2023 | Start 2-2 Fredrikstad | 1. Division |
| 11 Jun 2023 | Fredrikstad 3-1 Start | 1. Division |
| 31 Jul 2022 | Start 1-0 Fredrikstad | 1. Division |
| 18 Apr 2022 | Fredrikstad 1-0 Start | 1. Division |
Team News (Pregame)
Start: F. Lien (Foot Injury), S. Mvoue (Yellow Cards), K. Tonnesen (Leg Injury), M. Nordal (Illness)
Fredrikstad: S. Kvile (Knee Injury), K. Okpaleke (Injury), S. Sorlokk (Foot Injury), S. Leach (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Start vs Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Start to win.
What was the final score of Start vs Fredrikstad?
Start 0-1 Fredrikstad (full time).
When was Start vs Fredrikstad?
Start played Fredrikstad on Sat 8 Aug · 17:00 BST in the Eliteserien at TBC.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →With a marginal home advantage and a slightly higher expected goal tally, Start emerges as the modest favourite.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
