Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau: Both teams to score - No
Sturm Graz host Austria Lustenau in a match where both sides average exactly one expected goal, and the model rates the game as a tight 34.6% win chance for each side. The odds tilt toward a low‑scoring affair with a 67.7% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Both clubs come into the encounter with comparable attacking output – each registers an expected goals figure of 1.0 per game – but their defensive records diverge sharply. Sturm Graz have not conceded at home this season, while Austria Lustenau have allowed two goals on average in away fixtures.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 60% probability to both sides not finding the net, reflecting Graz’s clean‑sheet home record and Lustenau’s high away‑goals‑against average.
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With Sturm Graz averaging 1.0 expected goals and Austria Lustenau averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Sturm Graz 1.0 + Austria Lustenau 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Sturm Graz at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and Austria Lustenau at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz’s five‑game stretch reads D‑W‑W, with a 1‑1 draw at WSG Wattens, a 2‑0 win at TSV Hartberg, and a 1‑0 victory over SCR Altach. The clean sheets in the last two fixtures demonstrate a tightening defence, which directly supports the expectation that Lustenau will struggle to score.
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau’s recent run of D‑L‑W includes a 1‑1 home draw with Ried, a 1‑2 loss at Grazer AK, and a 2‑1 away win over Wolfsberger AC. The mix of conceding and scoring, especially the two‑goal concession on the road, signals vulnerability that aligns with the ‘no both‑teams‑to‑score’ pick.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Sturm Graz have won each encounter, most recently 2‑0 on 25 Nov 2023, reinforcing their historical dominance and supporting a clean‑sheet scenario for Graz.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Nov 2023 | Sturm Graz 2-0 Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Austria Lustenau 0-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| 4 Mar 2023 | Austria Lustenau 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| 18 Sep 2022 | Sturm Graz 2-0 Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| 30 Oct 2013 | Austria Lustenau 0-4 Sturm Graz | Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - No.
What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Lustenau (full time).
When was Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Sturm Graz played Austria Lustenau on Sat 22 Aug · 18:30 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Merkur-Arena.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →With Graz’s defensive solidity and Lustenau’s propensity to leak goals on the road, the match is likely to stay under the goal line, making a ‘Both teams to score – No’ the most logical selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
