Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz: Lask Linz to win
Sturm Graz's modest 1.0 xG at home meets Lask Linz's 2.5 away xG, while the model assigns a 69.9% win probability to the visitors. Expect a clear advantage for Lask Linz on the road.
Sturm Graz have been inconsistent, posting two wins, two draws and a loss in their last five league outings (D‑W‑W‑D‑L). Lask Linz, by contrast, sit on a perfect five‑game winning streak, scoring at least two goals in each fixture.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Lask Linz a 69.9% chance of victory, reflecting their superior expected goals and flawless recent form.
Show the maths
With Sturm Graz averaging 1.0 expected goals and Lask Linz averaging 2.5, the model gives a 58.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 42.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 3.5 (Sturm Graz 1.0 + Lask Linz 2.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.8% chance against 32.2% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Sturm Graz at 13.1%, the draw at 16.8%, and Lask Linz at 69.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-2 at 9.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz’s recent five results include a 2‑0 away win over TSV Hartberg and a 1‑0 home win versus SCR Altach, showing they can keep a clean sheet. However, a 1‑3 away loss to Rapid Vienna and two 1‑1 draws indicate defensive vulnerability and limited scoring, which dampens their chances against a high‑scoring Lask side.
Lask Linz
Lask Linz have won all five of their latest matches, notably a 4‑1 home victory over Ried and a 3‑1 away win at Wolfsberger AC, each featuring at least two goals. Their consistency and ability to find the net against varied opposition suggest they will continue to dominate this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, there have been two games with three or more goals – a 4‑2 win for Graz in March 2025 and a 1‑3 win for Linz in November 2025 – but the most recent two encounters were 1‑1 draws, indicating a slight edge for the visitors given their current form.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| 19 Apr 2026 | Lask Linz 1-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-3 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| 1 Aug 2025 | Lask Linz 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Sturm Graz 4-2 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
Team News
Sturm Graz: No notable injury concerns on record.
Lask Linz: R. Harakate (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Lask Linz to win. The model assigns Lask Linz a 69.9% chance of victory, reflecting their superior expected goals and flawless recent form.
What does the model give Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Sturm Graz a 13.1% chance, the draw 16.8%, and Lask Linz 69.9% to win.
When is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz play Lask Linz on Sun 13 Sep · 16:00 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Merkur-Arena.
Are there any injury concerns for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz have no notable injury concerns on record. Lask Linz: R. Harakate (Knee Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →Given the clear disparity in attacking output and the model’s confidence, the safest read is a straightforward win for Lask Linz.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
