Torino vs AS Roma: AS Roma to win
Torino host a vastly out‑scoring Roma side, with the visitors averaging four goals per game away and the model assigning them an 85.5% win chance.
Torino have struggled at the back, conceding two goals per home game, while Roma have ripped apart opponents on the road, keeping a clean sheet in every away fixture so far.
Robbo's Verdict
Roma’s 85.5% win probability and four‑goal away scoring rate make a home win for Torino highly unlikely.
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With Torino averaging 1.0 expected goals and AS Roma averaging 4.0, the model gives a 60.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 39.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.0 (Torino 1.0 + AS Roma 4.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 85.4% chance against 14.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Torino at 4.7%, the draw at 7.6%, and AS Roma at 85.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-3 at 7.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Torino
Torino’s recent run includes a 2-2 draw with Juventus at home and a 1-2 loss to AC Milan, also at home, showing they can’t keep a clean sheet and struggle to score more than one. Those two results, combined with a 1-2 defeat away to Sassuolo, illustrate a fragile defence and limited attack, which weakens any chance of holding back Roma’s prolific away line.
AS Roma
Roma have won five straight, highlighted by a 4-0 thrashing of Fiorentina at home and a 4-0 victory over Lecce away, both demonstrating their capacity to score multiple goals while conceding none. The 2-1 win at Atalanta further proves they can find the net even against strong opposition, reinforcing the expectation of a high‑scoring outing at Torino.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Roma have won three times, including a 0-2 win at Torino this January, while Torino’s only recent success was a 3-2 away win – the head‑to‑head trend favours Roma’s win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Torino 0-2 AS Roma | Serie A |
| 13 Jan 2026 | AS Roma 2-3 Torino | Coppa Italia |
| 14 Sep 2025 | AS Roma 0-1 Torino | Serie A |
| 25 May 2025 | Torino 0-2 AS Roma | Serie A |
| 31 Oct 2024 | AS Roma 1-0 Torino | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Torino: C. Casadei (Rest), F. Israel (Shoulder Injury), P. Pellegri (Knee Injury), C. Biraghi (Illness)
AS Roma: M. Bah (Knee Injury), L. Pellegrini (Thigh Injury), D. Rensch (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Torino vs AS Roma?
AS Roma won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was AS Roma to win.
What was the final score of Torino vs AS Roma?
Torino 0-2 AS Roma (full time).
When was Torino vs AS Roma?
Torino played AS Roma on Mon 14 Sep · 17:30 BST in the Serie A at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →With Roma’s attack firing at four goals per game and Torino’s defence letting in twice as many as they score at home, the odds heavily favor a Roma victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
