Torino vs Monza: Monza to win
Torino host Monza in a Coppa Italia clash where the model rates Monza’s win odds at 44.8% versus Torino’s 27.7%. Expected goals favour the visitors (1.35 vs 1.00), hinting at a slight offensive edge.
Both sides enter the cup tie fresh from their league campaigns, each riding a solitary win in their last five fixtures. Injuries on both benches leave little to change the balance, so the match will hinge on who can exploit the modest scoring margins.
Robbo's Verdict
Monza’s higher expected goals (1.35 vs 1.00) and the model’s 44.8% win probability make them the favorite to secure the result.
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With Torino averaging 1.0 expected goals and Monza averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Torino 1.0 + Monza 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Torino at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and Monza at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Torino
Torino’s most recent league result was a 1‑0 home win over Carrarese, showing they can grind out narrow victories. Their home goals‑for average sits at 1.0 while conceding none, indicating a disciplined defensive unit that still struggles to score beyond a single goal – a factor that supports the model’s lower win probability for them.
Monza
Monza opened their league run with a 3‑0 home thrashing of Avellino, demonstrating their capacity to dominate when firing. However, their away goals‑for average is 0.0, meaning they have yet to find the net on the road – a shortcoming that the model still offsets with a higher expected goal tally overall.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Torino have won twice (0‑2 in March 2025 and 1‑0 in March 2024) and drawn three, giving the home side a slight historic edge but no recent victories for Monza.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2025 | Monza 0-2 Torino | Serie A |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Torino 1-1 Monza | Serie A |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Torino 1-0 Monza | Serie A |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Monza 1-1 Torino | Serie A |
| 7 May 2023 | Torino 1-1 Monza | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Torino: F. Anjorin (Hip Injury), E. Comert (Red Card), F. Israel (Shoulder Injury), P. Pellegri (Knee Injury)
Monza: E. Akinsanmiro (Muscle Injury), P. Ciurria (Inactive), L. Colombo (Injury), D. Mota (Suspended)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Torino vs Monza?
Monza won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Monza to win.
What was the final score of Torino vs Monza?
Torino 0-1 Monza (full time).
When was Torino vs Monza?
Torino played Monza on Tue 1 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Coppa Italia at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
More Coppa Italia This Week
See all Coppa Italia fixtures →Given Monza’s superior expected goal output and the model’s clear preference for their victory, the sensible read is to back the visitors to take all three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
