Tottenham vs Everton: Tottenham to win
Tottenham's 1.35 xG faces Everton's 1.0 xG, yet the model gives Spurs a 44.8% chance to win. The home side’s recent 0‑0 draw and defensive frailties keep the odds tight.
Both clubs come into the clash with mixed recent form – Tottenham have lost two of their last three league games, while Everton have secured a win and a draw in the same span. The fixture pits Spurs' low‑scoring home record against an Everton side that has been solid on the road.
Robbo's Verdict
The model rates Tottenham’s win probability at 44.8% versus Everton’s 27.7%, reflecting the xG advantage and home‑field edge.
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With Tottenham averaging 1.35 expected goals and Everton averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Tottenham 1.35 + Everton 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Tottenham at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Everton at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Tottenham
Tottenham’s recent five‑game run reads L‑L‑D, highlighted by a 0‑3 loss at Brentford (A) and a 0‑2 defeat at home to Newcastle. The 0‑0 draw with Nottingham Forest (A) shows they can keep a clean sheet, but the lack of goals – zero scored in three matches – underlines why a win is not guaranteed despite the home advantage.
Everton
Everton have a W‑D run, beginning with a 2‑0 home win over Crystal Palace and followed by a 1‑1 away draw at Bournemouth. Both results feature a clean sheet and a goal, indicating a balanced approach that could frustrate Tottenham’s low‑scoring home outings.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Tottenham have won three times, most recently 1‑0 on 24 May 2026, while Everton’s biggest victory was 3‑2 on 19 Jan 2025. The recent 1‑0 win supports the model’s tilt toward a Spurs win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Tottenham 1-0 Everton | Premier League |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Everton 0-3 Tottenham | Premier League |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Everton 3-2 Tottenham | Premier League |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Tottenham 4-0 Everton | Premier League |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Everton 2-2 Tottenham | Premier League |
Team News (Pregame)
Tottenham: D. Kulusevski (Knee Injury), J. Maddison (Knock), W. Odobert (Knee Injury), X. Simons (Knee Injury)
Everton: C. Norgaard (Injury), T. Iroegbunam (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Tottenham vs Everton?
Tottenham and Everton drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Tottenham to win.
What was the final score of Tottenham vs Everton?
Tottenham 0-0 Everton (full time).
When was Tottenham vs Everton?
Tottenham played Everton on Sat 12 Sep · 17:30 BST in the Premier League at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
More Premier League This Week
See all Premier League fixtures →Given the modest edge in xG and the model’s 44.8% win probability, the most decisive market is a Tottenham win, where the statistical advantage translates into a clear betting edge.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
