Tromso vs Ham-Kam: Both teams to score - Yes
Tromsø's 1.8 expected goals versus Ham‑Kam's 1.0 set up a match where both sides have a clear scoring chance, reflected in a 52.8% BTTS probability.
Both clubs come into the fixture with fragile recent form – Tromsø have managed only one win in their last five, while Ham‑Kam have failed to secure a win in the same span – making every goal vital.
Lars's Verdict
Both sides are likely to score, given the 52.8% BTTS probability and the goal averages that favour at least one goal from each team.
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With Tromso averaging 1.8 expected goals and Ham-Kam averaging 1.0, the model gives a 52.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 47.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.8 (Tromso 1.8 + Ham-Kam 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 53.0% chance against 47.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Tromso at 56.1%, the draw at 23.1%, and Ham-Kam at 20.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 10.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Tromso
Tromsø’s last five league results are W, L, D, L, L. They beat Aalesund 6‑2 away, then fell 2‑3 to Molde away, held Sarpsborg 08 to a 0‑0 draw at home, lost 0‑2 to Kristiansund away and were beaten 3‑5 by Rosenborg away. The solitary win and the heavy defeats illustrate a volatile attack that can still score, supporting a chance for them to find the net against Ham‑Kam.
Ham-Kam
Ham‑Kam’s recent five results are D, L, D, L, L. They drew 1‑1 with Aalesund at home, suffered a 0‑3 loss to Brann away, drew 2‑2 with Kristiansund at home, were beaten 0‑4 by Rosenborg away and lost 1‑5 to Molde at home. The two draws show they can score, while the three heavy defeats confirm they will need to bite back, implying they are likely to get on the scoresheet.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Tromsø have won all four recent encounters (4‑1, 1‑0, 3‑1, 2‑0) and only drawn once 3‑3, indicating a clear historical advantage that aligns with the BTTS‑Yes outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2026 | Ham-Kam 1-4 Tromso | Eliteserien |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Tromso 1-0 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 22 Jun 2025 | Ham-Kam 1-3 Tromso | Eliteserien |
| 22 Mar 2025 | Tromso 2-0 Ham-Kam | Friendlies Clubs |
| 3 Nov 2024 | Tromso 3-3 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
Tromso: D. Braut (Hip Injury), C. Oyvann (Injury), V. Skjaervik (Injury), M. Tonnessen (Injury)
Ham-Kam: M. Gjone (Red Card), A. Potur (Heel Injury), N. Alexandersson (Injury), D. Benjamin (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Tromso won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Tromso 3-2 Ham-Kam (full time).
When was Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Tromso played Ham-Kam on Sun 20 Sep · 16:00 BST in the Eliteserien at Romssa Arena.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →The combination of Tromsø's superior attacking output and Ham‑Kam's leaky defence points to both teams scoring, making the BTTS‑Yes market the clearest edge.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
