TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna: Over 2.5 goals
Hartberg host Austria Vienna in a tightly matched Austrian Bundesliga clash where both sides have struggled to find the net, yet the model sees a slight edge for a goal‑rich game.
Both clubs come into the fixture on a two‑game losing streak, each having been shut out in their last outings. The lack of recent goals makes the upcoming encounter a test of who can finally break the dead‑lock.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 50.6% chance of over 2.5 goals, nudging the fixture just past the 50‑percent mark and making the over the most likely outcome.
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With TSV Hartberg averaging 1.35 expected goals and Austria Vienna averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (TSV Hartberg 1.35 + Austria Vienna 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has TSV Hartberg at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Austria Vienna at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
TSV Hartberg
Hartberg’s recent form shows two defeats: 0‑1 away at Red Bull Salzburg and 0‑2 at home to Sturm Graz. Both losses came without scoring, underscoring their current goal drought. This lack of firepower means Hartberg must rely on the model’s expected 1.35 goals to break the deadlock, supporting the over‑goal outlook.
Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna have also suffered back‑to‑back defeats, 0‑3 away at Wolfsberger AC and 0‑2 at home to LASK Linz, again without finding the net. Their recent shut‑outs mirror Hartberg’s, reinforcing the notion that both sides will be eager to score, which aligns with the over‑2.5 goal scenario.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Hartberg have won three (2‑1 on 1 Nov 2025, 3‑1 on 24 Aug 2025, 1‑0 on 2 Apr 2025) while Austria Vienna have taken two (1‑0 on 3 May 2026, 0‑1 on 22 Mar 2026). The relatively even split suggests no clear dominance, keeping the goal outlook open.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 22 Mar 2026 | TSV Hartberg 0-1 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 1 Nov 2025 | TSV Hartberg 2-1 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Austria Vienna 1-3 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 2 Apr 2025 | Austria Vienna 0-1 TSV Hartberg | Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna (full time).
When was TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
TSV Hartberg played Austria Vienna on Sun 16 Aug · 16:00 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Stadion Hartberg.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →Given the balanced xG, the high BTTS probability, and the model’s slight over‑2.5 edge, the most compelling read is that the match will produce more than two goals.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
