TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz: Over 2.5 goals
Hartberg host LASK in a match where the visitors average twice the goals per game of the hosts. The model gives LASK a 60.5% win chance and rates the game at 57.7% for over 2.5 goals.
Both sides come in with contrasting recent runs – Hartberg have stabilized after two early defeats, while LASK sit on a four‑win streak before their most recent loss. The clash pits Hartberg's modest home scoring against LASK's strong away output.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 57.7% probability to more than 2.5 goals, driven by LASK's 2.0 expected goals and Hartberg's defensive frailties.
Show the maths
With TSV Hartberg averaging 1.0 expected goals and Lask Linz averaging 2.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 3.0 (TSV Hartberg 1.0 + Lask Linz 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has TSV Hartberg at 18.3%, the draw at 21.2%, and Lask Linz at 60.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
TSV Hartberg
Hartberg's last five results are LLWWD, with recent wins 2-1 away at SCR Altach and a 3-2 home victory over Ried. Those two matches show they can score three goals when on the front foot, indicating they are capable of contributing to a higher scoreline despite earlier heavy defeats.
Lask Linz
LASK have gone WWWWL, highlighted by a 4-1 home thrashing of Ried and a 3-0 home win over SCR Altach. The four straight wins demonstrate a potent attack that consistently produces multiple goals, supporting an over‑2.5 goal scenario.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, LASK have recorded a 5-1 win, a 2-0 win, and a 3-3 draw, while Hartberg managed a 2-2 draw and a 0-0 stalemate, showing a tendency for LASK to dominate and for the matches to feature several goals.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| 13 Mar 2026 | Lask Linz 0-0 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 6 Dec 2025 | TSV Hartberg 2-2 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Lask Linz 3-3 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 26 May 2025 | Lask Linz 2-0 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
TSV Hartberg: No notable injury concerns on record.
Lask Linz: R. Harakate (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz drew 3-3. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg 3-3 Lask Linz (full time).
When was TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg played Lask Linz on Sun 20 Sep · 13:30 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Stadion Hartberg.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →Those numbers point to a game with several goals rather than a tight, low‑scoring affair.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
