TSV Hartberg vs Ried: Hartberg to win
Hartberg's home xG sits at 1.35 versus Ried's 1.0, and the model backs the hosts at 44.8% for a win. Recent head‑to‑head results also favour Hartberg, making a home victory the most likely outcome.
Both sides enter this Austrian Bundesliga clash with contrasting recent runs – Hartberg has turned a three‑game losing streak into a win, while Ried has slipped from a draw to a loss before snapping a win. The fixture pits a side that finally broke its winless run against a team that has struggled to keep clean sheets away from home.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 44.8% win probability and a superior xG rating make a Hartberg victory the most credible outcome.
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With TSV Hartberg averaging 1.35 expected goals and Ried averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (TSV Hartberg 1.35 + Ried 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has TSV Hartberg at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Ried at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
TSV Hartberg
Hartberg’s last five league games read L‑L‑L‑W, with the win coming 2‑1 away at SCR Altach after three straight defeats (0‑1 vs Salzburg, 0‑2 vs Sturm Graz, 0‑2 vs Austria Vienna). The recent victory shows they can break a slump, and the narrow 2‑1 win suggests they are capable of scoring the decisive goal needed for a home win here.
Ried
Ried’s five‑game stretch of D‑L‑L‑W reflects inconsistency, highlighted by a 1‑4 loss at Lask Linz and a 1‑0 home win over Grazer AK. The heavy defeat demonstrates defensive frailty away, while the solitary win shows they can grind out results, implying they are unlikely to overturn Hartberg’s home advantage.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Hartberg has won all five, including a recent 2‑0 victory on 22 Nov 2025. This unbroken dominance supports the pick of a Hartberg win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 | TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried | Bundesliga |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Ried 0-2 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 27 May 2023 | TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried | Bundesliga |
| 8 Apr 2023 | Ried 1-3 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 12 Feb 2023 | Ried 0-1 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
TSV Hartberg won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Hartberg to win.
What was the final score of TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
TSV Hartberg 3-2 Ried (full time).
When was TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
TSV Hartberg played Ried on Sun 30 Aug · 16:00 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Stadion Hartberg.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →All signs point to Hartberg edging the game by a narrow margin, especially given their recent head‑to‑head dominance.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
