Udinese vs Lazio: Under 2.5 goals
Udinese host Lazio in a Serie A clash where both sides sit on an expected‑goals rating of 1.0. The model’s 67.7% probability for under 2.5 goals makes a low‑scoring outcome the most logical read.
Both teams arrive with contrasting recent runs – Udinese have drawn and won their last two league games, while Lazio have rebounded from an opening loss to claim three straight victories. The form suggests a match where neither side is likely to flood the net.
Robbo's Verdict
The combined expected‑goals of 2.0 and the model’s 67.7% probability for under 2.5 goals point to a likely low‑scoring result.
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With Udinese averaging 1.0 expected goals and Lazio averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Udinese 1.0 + Lazio 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Udinese at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and Lazio at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Udinese
Udinese’s recent form includes a 1‑1 draw against Como at home and a 3‑2 away win over Monza. The draw shows they can hold opponents to a single goal, while the win, though high‑scoring, still kept the total under four, indicating they are not prone to large goal hauls – a factor that supports a subdued scoring environment.
Lazio
Lazio have rebounded with three wins – 2‑1 over Pisa at home, 1‑0 at Bologna away, and 1‑0 at Genoa home – after a 0‑2 loss at Roma away. The two clean‑sheet victories and a narrow two‑goal win demonstrate a trend of limiting opponents to few goals, which aligns with the under‑2.5‑goals expectation.
Head-to-Head
The recent head‑to‑head includes a 3‑3 draw on 27 April 2026 and a 2‑1 Udinese win on 24 August 2024, showing both teams can find the net but also that matches have often stayed under three goals, reinforcing the low‑scoring bias.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr 2026 | Lazio 3-3 Udinese | Serie A |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Udinese 1-1 Lazio | Serie A |
| 10 Mar 2025 | Lazio 1-1 Udinese | Serie A |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Udinese 2-1 Lazio | Serie A |
| 11 Mar 2024 | Lazio 1-2 Udinese | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Udinese: G. Chakvetadze (Foot Injury), C. Kabasele (Red Card), M. Palma (Muscle Injury), N. Zaniolo (Thigh Injury)
Lazio: D. Cataldi (Muscle Injury), F. Dele-Bashiru (Muscle Injury), A. Furlanetto (Knee Injury), S. Gigot (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Udinese vs Lazio?
Lazio won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Udinese vs Lazio?
Udinese 1-2 Lazio (full time).
When was Udinese vs Lazio?
Udinese played Lazio on Mon 7 Sep · 19:45 BST in the Serie A at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →With both clubs averaging a single goal per game and the model heavily favoring under 2.5 goals, the match is primed for a modest tally rather than a goal fest.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
