Udinese vs Venezia: Under 2.5 goals
Udinese's 1.0 xG meets Venezia's 1.35 xG in a Coppa Italia clash where the model predicts fewer than three goals, despite the visitors' higher threat. The numbers point to a tight, low‑scoring affair.
Both sides arrive on a single win in their last five league outings, but the cup tie pits Udinese's solid defensive record at home against Venezia's modest away output. With Udinese conceding none at home and Venezia yet to score on the road, the stage is set for a disciplined encounter.
Robbo's Verdict
The model puts the probability of under 2.5 goals at 58.3%, driven by strong defensive metrics and low-scoring probability distributions.
Show the maths
With Udinese averaging 1.0 expected goals and Venezia averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Udinese 1.0 + Venezia 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Udinese at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and Venezia at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Udinese
Udinese's recent form includes a 1‑0 win over Padova at home, showing they can secure a clean sheet while scoring. That defensive solidity aligns with their zero goals‑against average at home and supports the under‑2.5 outlook for this match.
Venezia
Venezia's latest league win came with a 3‑2 triumph over Modena at home, indicating they can score but also concede. Their away record shows no goals scored yet, which, combined with a defensive focus, points to a low‑scoring result here.
Head-to-Head
The recent head‑to‑head shows tight scorelines, with two 3‑2 games and a 1‑2 win for Udinese, indicating that even when goals occur they stay close to the 2‑goal mark, reinforcing the under‑2.5 expectation.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2025 | Udinese 3-2 Venezia | Serie A |
| 30 Oct 2024 | Venezia 3-2 Udinese | Serie A |
| 10 Apr 2022 | Venezia 1-2 Udinese | Serie A |
| 27 Aug 2021 | Udinese 3-0 Venezia | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Udinese: G. Chakvetadze (Foot Injury), A. Zanoli (Knee Injury), A. Buksa (Inactive), C. Kabasele (Red Card)
Venezia: A. Adorante (Hernia), A. Duncan (Injury), M. Moreno (Health problems), M. Sverko (Hip Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Udinese vs Venezia?
Udinese won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Udinese vs Venezia?
Udinese 2-1 Venezia (full time).
When was Udinese vs Venezia?
Udinese played Venezia on Wed 2 Sep · 17:00 BST in the Coppa Italia at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
More Coppa Italia This Week
See all Coppa Italia fixtures →Given the low expected total and the defensive balance, the safest read leans heavily toward fewer than three goals in the fixture.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
