Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF: Vasteras SK FK to win
Vasteras SK FK's 1.9 xG versus Kalmar FF's 0.9 xG sets a clear advantage for the hosts. The model rates a 60.8% chance of a Vasteras win, the strongest probability across the markets.
Both sides come into the clash with contrasting recent form – Vasteras have been inconsistent but still manage points, while Kalmar have slipped into a losing streak. The match pits Vasteras's higher scoring rate against Kalmar's porous defence away from home.
Lars's Verdict
The model's 60.8% win probability, driven by Vasteras's superior xG and Kalmar's weak away defence, makes this the strongest pick.
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With Vasteras SK FK averaging 1.9 expected goals and Kalmar FF averaging 0.9, the model gives a 50.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 49.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.8 (Vasteras SK FK 1.9 + Kalmar FF 0.9) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 53.0% chance against 47.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Vasteras SK FK at 60.8%, the draw at 21.9%, and Kalmar FF at 17.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 11.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras's last five league results read D‑W‑L‑W‑L, including a 2‑0 home win over Örgryte IS and a narrow 1‑0 home victory against Djurgårdens IF. Those recent wins show they can secure tight results at home, which underpins the expectation of a win here.
Kalmar FF
Kalmar's form of D‑W‑D‑L‑L features a 2‑1 home win over Mjällby AIF but recent away defeats, notably a 2‑3 loss to IFK Göteborg and a 0‑4 home drubbing by Hammarby. The string of losses highlights their vulnerability on the road, supporting the pick of a Vasteras win.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Vasteras have won three times, including a 0‑1 win on 5 April 2026, indicating a head‑to‑head edge that aligns with the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | Kalmar FF 0-1 Vasteras SK FK | Allsvenskan |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Kalmar FF 2-1 Vasteras SK FK | Superettan |
| 6 May 2025 | Vasteras SK FK 2-2 Kalmar FF | Superettan |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Kalmar FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2 Jun 2024 | Kalmar FF 0-4 Vasteras SK FK | Allsvenskan |
Team News (Pregame)
Vasteras SK FK: M. Diallo (Health problems), I. Lushaku (Injury), F. Nsabiyumva (Foot Injury), J. Ring (Muscle Injury)
Kalmar FF: C. Gustafsson (Injury), A. Keita (Injury), V. Larsson (Injury), N. Shamoun (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Vasteras SK FK to win.
What was the final score of Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Vasteras SK FK 0-0 Kalmar FF (full time).
When was Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Vasteras SK FK played Kalmar FF on Sun 23 Aug · 13:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at Hitachi Energy Arena.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →All indicators point to Vasteras capitalising on their superior attacking output while Kalmar struggle to find the net on the road, making a Vasteras victory the most logical outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
