Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius: Sirius to win
Sirius enter the clash with a 2.7 xG edge and a 58.8% win probability, while Vasteras sit at 23.2%. The model’s BTTS likelihood of 76.1% hints at a free‑scoring showdown.
Both sides have mixed recent form, but the divergence in goal output is stark. Vasteras have been uneven, while Sirius have shown firepower in their last two wins.
Lars's Verdict
Back Sirius to win as the model gives them a 58.8% chance, driven by a superior 2.7 expected‑goals rate away from home.
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With Vasteras SK FK averaging 1.7 expected goals and Sirius averaging 2.7, the model gives a 76.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 23.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.4 (Vasteras SK FK 1.7 + Sirius 2.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 81.3% chance against 18.7% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Vasteras SK FK at 23.2%, the draw at 17.8%, and Sirius at 58.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 7.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras’ last five results are L, W, L, D, W. Notably they lost 0‑6 away to Djurgårdens IF and then bounced back with a 1‑0 home win over the same opponent. The heavy defeat and subsequent recovery show volatility, underscoring why a win is less likely here.
Sirius
Sirius have recorded W, W, D, L, L. Their 4‑1 home victory over IFK Göteborg and 2‑0 away win at Halmstad illustrate their capacity to score multiple goals, reinforcing the model’s high win probability for this match.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent meeting on 2026‑04‑18, Sirius beat Vasteras 4‑1, and the 2024‑08‑31 encounter ended 2‑1 to Sirius, confirming a recent dominance that aligns with the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Sirius 4-1 Vasteras SK FK | Allsvenskan |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Vasteras SK FK 1-2 Sirius | Allsvenskan |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Vasteras SK FK None-None Sirius | Friendlies Clubs |
| 20 May 2024 | Sirius 0-0 Vasteras SK FK | Allsvenskan |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Sirius 1-3 Vasteras SK FK | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Vasteras SK FK: M. Diallo (Health problems), M. Keita (Inactive), F. Nsabiyumva (Foot Injury), J. Ring (Muscle Injury)
Sirius: N. Jonsson (Inactive), O. Liimatta (Inactive), M. Nartey (Inactive), J. Uneken (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius?
Sirius won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Sirius to win.
What was the final score of Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius?
Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Sirius (full time).
When was Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius?
Vasteras SK FK played Sirius on Sat 5 Sep · 16:30 BST in the Allsvenskan at Hitachi Energy Arena.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →The combination of superior expected goals and a clear win probability makes the Sirius win the most compelling selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
