Venezia vs Fiorentina: Venezia to win
Venezia and Fiorentina both sit on a 1.35 expected‑goals mark, but the home side’s defensive record (2.0 goals‑against per game) is markedly tighter than Fiorentina’s 4.0 away concession rate. The model gives each side a 37.1% chance to win, yet the stats tilt the edge toward Venezia.
Both clubs have endured two straight league defeats, with Venezia falling 0‑2 at home to Lecce and 0‑2 away to AC Milan, while Fiorentina were beaten 0‑4 on the road by AS Roma and 0‑3 at home by Frosinone. Injury worries linger for both sides – Venezia miss Adorante and Sverko among others, and Fiorentina are without Parisi and Sottil.
Robbo's Verdict
Venezia’s tighter defensive record at home (2.0 GA) versus Fiorentina’s porous away defence (4.0 GA) nudges the win probability in their favour, despite equal expected‑goals.
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With Venezia averaging 1.35 expected goals and Fiorentina averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Venezia 1.35 + Fiorentina 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Venezia at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Fiorentina at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Venezia
Venezia’s recent form shows two 0‑2 defeats – first at home against Lecce (0‑2) and then away to AC Milan (0‑2). The back‑to‑back shutouts underline a lack of scoring threat, yet the clean‑sheet nature of the defeats highlights that when they do concede, it’s limited to two goals, supporting a defensive resilience that benefits a home win bid.
Fiorentina
Fiorentina have dropped two heavy games: a 0‑4 loss away to AS Roma and a 0‑3 home defeat to Frosinone. Conceding four and three goals respectively reveals a defence that struggles particularly on the road, reinforcing the view that their away form weakens their win prospects.
Head-to-Head
The recent head‑to‑head record includes a 2‑1 Venezia victory on 12 May 2025 and a 0‑0 draw on 25 Aug 2024, showing that Venezia can prevail at home and that draws are not the norm, which backs the home win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 May 2025 | Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Fiorentina 0-0 Venezia | Serie A |
| 16 Apr 2022 | Fiorentina 1-0 Venezia | Serie A |
| 18 Oct 2021 | Venezia 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Venezia: A. Adorante (Hernia), M. Sverko (Hip Injury), B. Franjic (Injury), M. Moreno (Health problems)
Fiorentina: F. Parisi (Knee Injury), R. Sottil (Back Injury), A. Atta (Injury), Dodo (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina won 4-2. Our pre-match pick was Venezia to win.
What was the final score of Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina (full time).
When was Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Venezia played Fiorentina on Fri 11 Sep · 19:45 BST in the Serie A at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →Given the stark contrast in defensive frailty and the home advantage, the model’s even win probability leans toward the team that has been conceding fewer goals – Venezia.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
