Viking vs Lillestrom: Viking to win
Viking's xG of 3.9 dwarfs Lillestrom's 1.1, and the model gives them an 83.6% chance to win. Expect a high‑scoring home performance.
Both sides come into the clash with contrasting recent runs – Viking have been inconsistent but lethal at home, while Lillestrom have only just steadied after a rocky start.
Lars's Verdict
The model rates Viking's chance of victory at 83.6%, driven by a dominant home xG advantage and recent high‑scoring displays.
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With Viking averaging 3.9 expected goals and Lillestrom averaging 1.1, the model gives a 64.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 35.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.0 (Viking 3.9 + Lillestrom 1.1) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 85.7% chance against 14.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Viking at 83.6%, the draw at 8.6%, and Lillestrom at 5.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-1 at 7.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Viking
Viking's last five league results (W, L, W, D, W) include a 2‑1 victory over Sarpsborg 08 at home and an 8‑1 thrashing of Kristiansund on home soil. Both wins came with more than one goal scored, reinforcing the model's view that Viking can breach Lillestrom's defense repeatedly, which backs a win pick.
Lillestrom
Lillestrom's five‑game run (L, D, L, W, W) features a 1‑1 draw away at KFUM Oslo and a 2‑1 away win over Brann. The draw and narrow win show they can pick up points but struggle to score more than one goal on the road, which weakens their odds of overturning Viking's home advantage.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Viking have won four times, including a 2‑1 win on 22 July 2026, indicating a clear historical edge that aligns with the model's win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | Lillestrom 1-2 Viking | Eliteserien |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Lillestrom 1-4 Viking | Eliteserien |
| 16 May 2024 | Viking 1-4 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| 13 Aug 2023 | Lillestrom 1-3 Viking | Eliteserien |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Viking 2-0 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
Viking: A. Baertelsen (Foot Injury), E. Bassey (Injury), V. Berisha (Thigh Injury), S. Bjorshol (Injury)
Lillestrom: L. Alperud (Injury), E. B. Garnas (Injury), C. Jebara (Injury), R. Gabrielsen (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Viking vs Lillestrom?
Viking won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Viking to win.
What was the final score of Viking vs Lillestrom?
Viking 3-0 Lillestrom (full time).
When was Viking vs Lillestrom?
Viking played Lillestrom on Sun 20 Sep · 16:00 BST in the Eliteserien at Lyse Arena.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →All indicators point to Viking not only winning but doing so comfortably on their own turf.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
