Willem II vs Excelsior: Excelsior to win
Excelsior's 4.0 expected goals dwarf Willem II's 1.5, and the model backs a decisive away win. The numbers point to plenty of chances and plenty of goals.
Willem II enter the meeting on a shaky run of two defeats followed by a draw, while Excelsior have rebounded from a single loss to pick up three wins in five. Both sides are coming off contrasting form, setting up a clear contrast in attacking potency.
Lars's Verdict
With a 78.5% win probability and a 4.0 xG advantage, Excelsior are overwhelmingly likely to take all three points.
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With Willem II averaging 1.5 expected goals and Excelsior averaging 4.0, the model gives a 74.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 25.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.5 (Willem II 1.5 + Excelsior 4.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 89.0% chance against 11.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Willem II at 9.2%, the draw at 10.2%, and Excelsior at 78.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-3 at 6.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Willem II
Willem II's last five league results are L, L, D, showing they have dropped two consecutive games before salvaging a draw. Notably they fell 1‑4 to Go Ahead Eagles away and 1‑4 to NEC Nijmegen at home, indicating defensive frailties that undermine any chance of holding Excelsior.
Excelsior
Excelsior's recent form reads D, W, W, L, W – a single loss amid four wins. They beat Sparta Rotterdam 3‑2 away, thrashed Cambuur 4‑0 away, and more recently edged Sparta Rotterdam 2‑1 at home, demonstrating both scoring depth and defensive resilience.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Excelsior have lost two, drawn two and won one, with the most recent 2022‑12‑30 match ending 3‑1 to Willem II – a result that contradicts the current form trend, but the overall pattern still favors an Excelsior win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2022 | Willem II 3-1 Excelsior | Friendlies Clubs |
| 17 Jul 2021 | Willem II 2-0 Excelsior | Friendlies Clubs |
| 21 Apr 2019 | Excelsior 1-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| 15 Sep 2018 | Willem II 2-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| 6 Apr 2018 | Excelsior 2-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
Willem II: L. Abildgaard (Inactive), A. Culum (Foot Injury), T. Didillon Hodl (Hamstring Injury), A. Lachkar (Groin Injury)
Excelsior: N. Naujoks (Inactive), K. Bos (Shoulder Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Willem II vs Excelsior?
Excelsior won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Excelsior to win.
What was the final score of Willem II vs Excelsior?
Willem II 0-3 Excelsior (full time).
When was Willem II vs Excelsior?
Willem II played Excelsior on Sat 5 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Eredivisie at Koning Willem II Stadion.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →The statistical gap leaves little doubt that Excelsior will dominate, making a straight win the safest read.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
