Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard: Fortuna Sittard to win
Willem II's 1.0 xG meets a far stronger Fortuna Sittard attack averaging 2.7 xG on the road. The model rates the visitors' win probability at 73.1%, making a straight win the clearest edge.
Both clubs come in from contrasting form runs: Willem II have failed to win in five, recording three defeats and two draws, while Fortuna Sittard have secured three wins out of five, including a 3‑2 away victory at Groningen. The gap in recent results sets the stage for a likely dominance by the visitors.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 73.1% chance of a Fortuna Sittard victory, reflecting their superior xG and recent form against a leaky Willem II side.
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With Willem II averaging 1.0 expected goals and Fortuna Sittard averaging 2.7, the model gives a 58.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 41.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.7 (Willem II 1.0 + Fortuna Sittard 2.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 71.3% chance against 28.7% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Willem II at 11.5%, the draw at 15.3%, and Fortuna Sittard at 73.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-2 at 9.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Willem II
Willem II's last five league games read L‑L‑D‑L‑D, including a 1‑4 loss at GO Ahead Eagles and a 0‑3 home defeat to Excelsior. Those heavy defeats illustrate a defense that concedes heavily, reducing the likelihood of holding off a high‑scoring opponent and thus weakening any chance of a home win.
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard have posted a WLWWL run, highlighted by a 3‑2 away win at Groningen and a 3‑2 victory at ADO Den Haag. Scoring three goals in both matches demonstrates their ability to find the net on the road, reinforcing the model's confidence in an away win.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Fortuna Sittard have won twice (1‑0 on 2025‑04‑27 and 1‑0 on 2022‑03‑13) and drawn twice, with one Willem II win (2‑1 on 2021‑05‑16); the head‑to‑head record therefore backs the expectation of a Fortuna Sittard win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Willem II 0-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 13 Mar 2022 | Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| 22 Oct 2021 | Willem II 1-1 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 16 May 2021 | Willem II 2-1 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
Willem II: A. Culum (Foot Injury), T. Didillon Hodl (Hamstring Injury), J. Hoogma (Inactive), A. Lachkar (Groin Injury)
Fortuna Sittard: R. Bayram (Knee Injury), I. Marquez (Injury), Y. Oukili (Injury), K. Peterson (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Fortuna Sittard to win.
What was the final score of Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Willem II 0-1 Fortuna Sittard (full time).
When was Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Willem II played Fortuna Sittard on Sat 19 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Eredivisie at Koning Willem II Stadion.
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See all Eredivisie fixtures →Given the defensive frailties at Willem II and the away scoring consistency of Fortuna Sittard, the model's win probability stands out as the strongest signal.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
