WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg: TSV Hartberg to win
Hartberg's away xG of 1.0 dwarfs Wattens' home xG of 0.5, and the model gives Hartberg a 47% win chance. Expect a low‑scoring affair with the visitors edging it.
Both sides come into this clash with contrasting recent runs: Wattens have turned two defeats into three points from their last five, while Hartberg have rebounded from three straight losses to bag two wins. The shift in form makes the upcoming encounter a test of who can sustain momentum.
Lars's Verdict
Hartberg’s higher away xG and the model’s 47% win probability make a victory the most probable outcome.
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With WSG Wattens averaging 0.5 expected goals and TSV Hartberg averaging 1.0, the model gives a 75.1% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 24.9% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.5 (WSG Wattens 0.5 + TSV Hartberg 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 80.9% chance against 19.1% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has WSG Wattens at 18.1%, the draw at 34.9%, and TSV Hartberg at 47.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 22.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
WSG Wattens
Wattens’ last five results DLLWW include a 1‑1 draw at Sturm Graz and a 4‑0 win at Austria Lustenau, showing they can hold a clean sheet but also struggle to score, evidenced by only one goal in the draw. Those performances underline a limited offensive output, supporting the low expected‑goals figure and the modest win probability.
TSV Hartberg
Hartberg’s recent form LLLWW features a 2‑1 away win at SCR Altach and a 3‑2 home win over Ried, demonstrating a capacity to find the net after three defeats. Scoring in both victories aligns with their 1.0 away xG and underpins the model’s belief in their ability to secure a win here.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Hartberg have three wins (2‑1, 3‑2, 1‑3) and one draw (0‑0) against Wattens, indicating a recent head‑to‑head edge that complements the model’s win forecast.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | TSV Hartberg 2-1 WSG Wattens | Bundesliga |
| 2 Aug 2025 | WSG Wattens 4-2 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 17 May 2025 | TSV Hartberg 3-2 WSG Wattens | Bundesliga |
| 5 Apr 2025 | WSG Wattens 1-3 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 9 Feb 2025 | WSG Wattens 0-0 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg to win. Hartberg’s higher away xG and the model’s 47% win probability make a victory the most probable outcome.
What does the model give WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives WSG Wattens a 18.1% chance, the draw 34.9%, and TSV Hartberg 47.0% to win.
When is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
WSG Wattens play TSV Hartberg on Sun 13 Sep · 13:30 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →Given the statistical edge and the recent form swing, the model’s strongest signal points to an away victory for Hartberg.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
