Anaitasuna vs Tedeón preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Copa del Rey · 1/128-finals FT · Anaitasuna 5-0 Tedeón TBC

Anaitasuna vs Tedeón: Over 2.5 goals

Anaitasuna and Tedeón both sit on an expected‑goals tally of 1.35 in this Copa del Rey tie, giving the match a natural goal‑rich profile.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Over 2.5 goals Won

Lean · Slight edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

With neither side carrying a clear scoring advantage on paper, the cup fixture is set to be decided by the thin margin between the two identical xG values.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Over 2.5 goals Won Solid lean Lean · Slight edge

The combined expected‑goals of 2.70 makes the over‑2.5 outcome the most probable result according to the model.

Show the maths

Each team’s expected goals of 1.35 sum to a total of 2.70. The model converts this total into a probability of 50.6 % for the match to finish with more than 2.5 goals and 49.4 % for fewer. Because the over probability is the higher of the two, the model’s headline pick is over 2.5 goals.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With Anaitasuna averaging 1.35 expected goals and Tedeón averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Anaitasuna 1.35, Tedeón 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Anaitasuna 1.35 + Tedeón 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Anaitasuna 1.35 + Tedeón 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Anaitasuna at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Tedeón at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Anaitasuna expected goals

1.35

Tedeón expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Copa del Rey showdown confirmed

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Anaitasuna vs Tedeón?

Anaitasuna won 5-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.

What was the final score of Anaitasuna vs Tedeón?

Anaitasuna 5-0 Tedeón (full time).

When was Anaitasuna vs Tedeón?

Anaitasuna played Tedeón on Sat 26 Sep · 17:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.

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Given the balanced but slightly elevated goal expectation, the most logical read is that the match will exceed 2.5 goals.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups