Lebrijana vs Ceuta 6 de Junio preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Copa del Rey · 1/128-finals FT · Lebrijana 5-0 Ceuta 6 de Junio TBC

Lebrijana vs Ceuta 6 de Junio: Both teams to score - Yes

Lebrijana host Ceuta 6 de Junio in the Copa del Rey, with both sides averaging 1.35 expected goals. The model rates a 54.9% chance both teams will find the net.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes Lost

Solid · BTTS edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

The tie pits a home side that has yet to reveal its recent league form against a Ceuta side that has stumbled through four consecutive defeats. With cup motivation high, the match promises open play.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Lost Solid lean Solid · BTTS edge

The model assigns a 54.9% probability to both sides scoring, making the BTTS‑Yes market the most compelling pick.

Show the maths

Both clubs have an expected‑goals value of 1.35, meaning each is statistically likely to create at least one clear chance. When the model combines those identical xG figures, it calculates a BTTS probability above 50%, specifically 54.9%. This exceeds the 45.1% chance of a clean sheet, so the model’s own odds favor both sides to hit the net.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With Lebrijana averaging 1.35 expected goals and Ceuta 6 de Junio averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Lebrijana 1.35, Ceuta 6 de Junio 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Lebrijana 1.35 + Ceuta 6 de Junio 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Lebrijana 1.35 + Ceuta 6 de Junio 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Lebrijana at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Ceuta 6 de Junio at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Lebrijana expected goals

1.35

Ceuta 6 de Junio expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Two dates on the calendar

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Lebrijana vs Ceuta 6 de Junio?

Lebrijana won 5-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.

What was the final score of Lebrijana vs Ceuta 6 de Junio?

Lebrijana 5-0 Ceuta 6 de Junio (full time).

When was Lebrijana vs Ceuta 6 de Junio?

Lebrijana played Ceuta 6 de Junio on Sat 26 Sep · 17:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.

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Given the equal xG and the clear BTTS edge in the model, the safest reading is that both teams will score.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups