Atletico Calatayud vs Baztán preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Copa del Rey · 1/128-finals FT · Atletico Calatayud 2-0 Baztán TBC

Atletico Calatayud vs Baztán: Atletico Calatayud to win

Both sides sit on identical expected‑goal figures (1.35) and the model splits the win odds 37.1%‑37.1%, leaving the draw as the only marginally less likely outcome. The cup tie looks set to be decided by a single moment rather than sustained dominance.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Atletico Calatayud to win Won

Lean · Marginal edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

50.6% model probability

Atletico Calatayud arrive in this Copa del Rey clash after two consecutive league defeats – a 0‑3 loss away at Sant Just and a 1‑4 loss at home to the same side. Baztán, by contrast, have only one recorded league result, a 1‑1 home draw against Ontiñena, suggesting they have at least avoided defeat recently.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Atletico Calatayud to win Won Slight lean Lean · Marginal edge

The model gives Atletico Calatayud a 37.1% chance of victory, matching the away side’s odds but offering a marginally higher probability than the draw at 25.8%. Their recent defensive frailties are offset by home familiarity in the cup.

Show the maths

The model assigns both teams a 37.1% win probability, leaving the draw at 25.8%. Because the home side’s win chance equals the away side’s but exceeds the draw probability, the model subtly favours Atletico Calatayud. The equal expected‑goals (1.35) suggest a close match, but the higher win probability relative to the draw pushes the pick toward the home team.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With Atletico Calatayud averaging 1.35 expected goals and Baztán averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Atletico Calatayud 1.35, Baztán 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Atletico Calatayud 1.35 + Baztán 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Atletico Calatayud 1.35 + Baztán 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Atletico Calatayud at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Baztán at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Atletico Calatayud expected goals

1.35

Baztán expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Atletico Calatayud

Atletico Calatayud’s last two league outings were heavy defeats – a 0‑3 loss away at Sant Just and a 1‑4 loss at home to the same club. Those results highlight defensive vulnerabilities and a lack of scoring, which underlines why a narrow home win is the most realistic outcome.

Baztán

Baztán’s only recorded league result is a 1‑1 home draw with Ontiñena, showing they can secure a point when not overwhelmed. This limited data points to a team capable of holding the line but not likely to dominate, reinforcing the view that a home win for Atletico Calatayud is plausible.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Match slated for September 26

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Atletico Calatayud vs Baztán?

Atletico Calatayud won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Atletico Calatayud to win.

What was the final score of Atletico Calatayud vs Baztán?

Atletico Calatayud 2-0 Baztán (full time).

When was Atletico Calatayud vs Baztán?

Atletico Calatayud played Baztán on Sat 26 Sep · 17:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.

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With neither side showing a clear statistical edge in win probability, the safest reading is to back the home side’s slight home advantage, however modest, and expect a narrow result.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups