Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls: Both teams to score - Yes
Atlanta United and New York Red Bulls both sit on a 1.4 expected‑goals mark this season, and the model assigns a 56.8% chance both sides will find the net.
Both clubs arrive on a mixed run of results – Atlanta with four defeats and a draw in their last five, New York with two wins, two defeats and a draw – setting up a contest where neither side can afford a shut‑out.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model rates the BTTS market at 56.8%, backed by equal expected goals and recent fixtures that frequently featured both sides scoring.
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With Atlanta United FC averaging 1.4 expected goals and New York Red Bulls averaging 1.4, the model gives a 56.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 43.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.8 (Atlanta United FC 1.4 + New York Red Bulls 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 53.1% chance against 46.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Atlanta United FC at 37.4%, the draw at 25.3%, and New York Red Bulls at 37.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Atlanta United FC
Atlanta’s recent five results include a 2‑2 draw with Charlotte and a 1‑4 loss to New England, both of which saw the visitors score. The 2‑3 defeat at Philadelphia also produced goals on both ends. Three of five matches featuring both sides scoring signals that Atlanta is likely to concede again while still finding the net themselves.
New York Red Bulls
New York’s last five games feature a 1‑1 draw with New York City FC, a 2‑1 win at Sporting Kansas City, and a 3‑2 home victory over Orlando City – each match yielding goals for both teams. With three of five recent fixtures producing BTTS, the Red Bulls have demonstrated a clear propensity to be involved in high‑scoring affairs.
Head-to-Head
In the head‑to‑head record, the 3‑2 win for Atlanta in February 2026 and the 2‑2 draw in September 2024 both produced both‑sides‑scoring outcomes, reinforcing the BTTS trend.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2026 | Atlanta United FC 3-2 New York Red Bulls | Friendlies Clubs |
| 31 May 2025 | New York Red Bulls 2-0 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 9 Mar 2025 | Atlanta United FC 0-0 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Atlanta United FC 2-1 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 21 Sep 2024 | New York Red Bulls 2-2 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Atlanta United FC: S. Alzate (Groin Injury), P. Diaz (Transfer negotiations), A. Fortune (Injury), C. Sanchez (International duty)
New York Red Bulls: A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), A. Mehmeti (Red Card), R. Mosquera (Thigh Injury), J. Ruvalcaba (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls?
Atlanta United FC won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls?
Atlanta United FC 2-1 New York Red Bulls (full time).
When was Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls?
Atlanta United FC played New York Red Bulls on Sun 16 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the mirrored attacking output, the comparable defensive records and recent matches where both teams scored, the most logical read is that both sides will hit the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
