Austin vs Colorado Rapids: Austin Draw No Bet
Austin sit at 1.4 xG versus Colorado's 0.9, and the model rates Austin's win chance at 48.6% – a clear edge over the Rapids.
Both sides come into this Mid‑week clash with contrasting recent runs: Austin have slipped to a 2‑1‑2 spell, while Colorado have rattled off four wins in five, including a 1‑0 home victory over Austin earlier this season.
Jonesy's Verdict
Austin’s win odds rise to about 66% once the draw is removed, giving a solid edge over Colorado.
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With Austin averaging 1.4 expected goals and Colorado Rapids averaging 0.9, the model gives a 55.3% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 44.7% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (Austin 1.4 + Colorado Rapids 0.9) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Austin at 48.6%, the draw at 27.2%, and Colorado Rapids at 24.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 14.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Austin
Austin’s recent five‑match run reads L‑L‑W‑D‑W, highlighted by a 2‑1 win at Seattle and a 2‑1 victory over Portland. The win against Portland shows they can still break through on the road, but the two early losses and a draw indicate inconsistency – a factor that tempers the confidence in a straight win but supports a draw‑no‑bet.
Colorado Rapids
Colorado have gone W‑W‑W‑L‑W, with a 1‑0 win at home over Austin and a 2‑0 demolition of Sporting Kansas City. The lone 0‑3 defeat away at San Diego is their only blemish, suggesting they can dominate at home but remain vulnerable on the road – reinforcing the idea that a draw is the main risk.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Colorado have won three, including a 1‑0 win this season, while Austin have taken one 2‑0 win. The head‑to‑head tilt toward Colorado aligns with the model’s draw‑no‑bet edge for Austin, as the Rapids have historically edged the fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2026 | Colorado Rapids 1-0 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 8 Jun 2025 | Colorado Rapids 0-2 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 9 Mar 2025 | Austin 0-1 Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Austin 3-2 Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Jun 2024 | Colorado Rapids 2-0 Austin | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Austin: O. Wolff (Ankle Injury), M. Desler (Achilles Tendon Injury), J. Bell (Pelvis Injury), B. Hines-Ike (Muscle Injury)
Colorado Rapids: M. Diop (Knee Injury), T. Ku-DiPietro (Shoulder Injury), H. Ojediran (Yellow Cards), Z. Steffen (Shoulder Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Austin vs Colorado Rapids?
Austin and Colorado Rapids drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Austin Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Austin vs Colorado Rapids?
Austin 1-1 Colorado Rapids (full time).
When was Austin vs Colorado Rapids?
Austin played Colorado Rapids on Thu 10 Sep · 01:30 BST in the MLS at Q2 Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →When you strip out the draw, Austin’s win probability jumps to roughly two‑thirds, making a draw‑no‑bet the most confident market for the game.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
