CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew: Over 2.5 goals
CF Montreal (1.3 xG) hosts Columbus Crew (1.5 xG) in an MLS clash where the model predicts a 53.1% chance of more than 2.5 goals. Both sides have struggled defensively, setting the stage for a potentially open game.
Montreal arrive on a five‑match slide, their recent form DLLLL underscoring a lack of winning momentum. Columbus have also stumbled, posting LLWLL, with only a single victory in their last five outings. The symmetry of recent results hints at a match where neither side can rely on defensive solidity.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 53.1% probability to the Over, driven by a combined expected goal total of 2.8 and both teams’ leaky defenses.
Show the maths
With CF Montreal averaging 1.3 expected goals and Columbus Crew averaging 1.5, the model gives a 56.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 43.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.8 (CF Montreal 1.3 + Columbus Crew 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 53.1% chance against 46.9% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CF Montreal at 32.9%, the draw at 25.1%, and Columbus Crew at 42.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CF Montreal
Montreal’s recent run includes a 2‑2 draw with Los Angeles Galaxy at home and a 1‑7 defeat at Inter Miami away, followed by three straight losses (0‑2 vs Philadelphia, 1‑2 vs Charlotte, 0‑1 vs Colorado). Scoring two goals against LA shows they can find the net, but the heavy 1‑7 loss highlights defensive vulnerability, reinforcing the expectation of a high‑scoring game.
Columbus Crew
Columbus’ last five feature a 3‑0 home win over Colorado Rapids, sandwiched between narrow defeats (2‑3 at Nashville, 1‑3 at New England, 1‑2 at DC United, 0‑1 at New York). The dominant win shows their attacking potential, yet four defeats where they conceded at least two goals underline a propensity to concede, supporting an Over 2.5 scenario.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, three games exceeded 2.5 goals: 1‑2 (2026‑08‑19), 2‑1 (2025‑04‑05), and 1‑3 (2024‑05‑15). This head‑to‑head pattern aligns with the model’s Over projection.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | Columbus Crew 1-2 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 14 May 2025 | CF Montreal 1-1 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Columbus Crew 2-1 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 15 May 2024 | CF Montreal 1-3 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Columbus Crew 0-0 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
CF Montreal: F. Amaya (Lower-Body Injury), B. Hidalgo (Groin Injury), M. Longstaff (Yellow Cards), D. Pereira (Lower-Body Injury)
Columbus Crew: W. Abou Ali (Knee Injury), S. Bangoura (Ankle Injury), R. Camacho (Foot Injury), J. Thiare (Leg Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?
Columbus Crew won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?
CF Montreal 0-2 Columbus Crew (full time).
When was CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?
CF Montreal played Columbus Crew on Sun 20 Sep · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Saputo Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the elevated combined xG and the recent defensive frailties, the most compelling read is that the match will produce more than two and a half goals.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
