CF Montreal vs DC United: Under 2.5 goals
CF Montreal's 1.3 xG meets DC United's 1.2 xG, but both defenses sit at just 1.1 conceding per game. The model backs the under‑2.5‑goals line at 54.4% probability.
Both sides have been leaking goals at a similar rate, yet their recent matches have been low‑scoring affairs. Montreal’s five‑game stretch ends with three draws and two defeats, while United has recorded four draws and a solitary win.
Jonesy's Verdict
The combined defensive record of 1.1 goals conceded per game each, paired with a model under‑2.5 probability of 54.4%, points to a low‑scoring encounter.
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With CF Montreal averaging 1.3 expected goals and DC United averaging 1.2, the model gives a 50.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 49.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (CF Montreal 1.3 + DC United 1.2) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CF Montreal at 38.9%, the draw at 27.0%, and DC United at 34.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CF Montreal
Montreal’s last five league results (D, D, L, L, D) include a 0‑0 draw at home against Toronto FC and a 2‑2 home draw with New England Revolution. Both fixtures featured few chances, underscoring a tendency toward tight games that supports the under‑2.5 pick.
DC United
United’s recent run (D, D, D, W, D) features a 1‑1 home draw with St. Louis City and a 2‑2 home draw with Nashville SC. The prevalence of draws with low scorelines signals an ability to hold opponents at bay, reinforcing the under‑2.5 outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings the teams have combined for 17 goals (average 3.4 per game), with three draws (4‑4, 1‑1, 0‑0) and two decisive results (4‑2, 1‑0). This high scoring trend runs counter to the under pick, but the defensive form this season tilts the balance.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | DC United 4-4 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Aug 2025 | CF Montreal 1-1 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Mar 2025 | DC United 0-0 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 29 May 2024 | CF Montreal 4-2 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 30 Mar 2024 | DC United 1-0 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
CF Montreal: F. Amaya (Lower-Body Injury), W. Carmona (Knee Injury), B. Ceballos (Inactive), T. Gillier (Concussion)
DC United: C. Antley (Leg Injury), G. Segal (Leg Injury), S. Nealis (Broken collarbone), S. Hefti (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won CF Montreal vs DC United?
CF Montreal and DC United drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of CF Montreal vs DC United?
CF Montreal 1-1 DC United (full time).
When was CF Montreal vs DC United?
CF Montreal played DC United on Sun 16 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Saputo Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the defensive parity and the modest xG ceiling, the match is more likely to stay under the goal line despite the headline‑grabbing xG total.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
