CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati to win
CF Montreal enter this MLS clash with a five‑match losing streak, while FC Cincinnati have failed to win in five but still hold a higher win probability at 44.1% according to our model.
Both sides arrive on a slump – Montreal have lost five straight, and Cincinnati have not secured a victory in their last five league outings, recording two draws and three defeats. The lack of recent success heightens the importance of a result that could reverse momentum.
Jonesy's Verdict
Cincinnati’s 1.5 xG against Montreal’s 1.2, combined with the model’s 44.1% win probability, makes the visitors the clear favorite.
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With CF Montreal averaging 1.2 expected goals and FC Cincinnati averaging 1.5, the model gives a 54.3% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.7% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (CF Montreal 1.2 + FC Cincinnati 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CF Montreal at 30.4%, the draw at 25.5%, and FC Cincinnati at 44.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CF Montreal
Montreal’s five‑game slide includes a 1‑7 loss at Inter Miami, a 0‑2 defeat to Philadelphia Union, a 1‑2 loss at Charlotte, a 0‑1 loss at Colorado Rapids, and a 0‑2 loss to Columbus Crew. The consistency of defeats, especially the heavy 1‑7 loss, underscores a struggling attack and defense, which diminishes their chances of turning the result in their favor.
FC Cincinnati
Cincinnati’s recent form shows a 1‑1 draw at Seattle Sounders, a 0‑4 loss to Nashville SC, a 0‑5 loss to Philadelphia Union, a 3‑3 draw at Charlotte, and a 2‑2 draw at Houston Dynamo. The two draws and three losses illustrate a team that can score but struggles to keep clean sheets, supporting a scenario where they can outscore Montreal despite conceding.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head‑to‑head meetings, Cincinnati have won every game, including a 4‑3 victory on 22 March 2026 and a 3‑0 win on 18 October 2025, reinforcing the model’s Cincinnati win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | FC Cincinnati 4-3 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 18 Oct 2025 | FC Cincinnati 3-0 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 25 Jun 2025 | CF Montreal 1-3 FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 24 Jan 2025 | FC Cincinnati 1-0 CF Montreal | Friendlies Clubs |
| 31 Aug 2024 | FC Cincinnati 4-1 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
CF Montreal: F. Amaya (Lower-Body Injury), T. Gillier (Upper-Body Injury), B. Hidalgo (Groin Injury), D. Pereira (Lower-Body Injury)
FC Cincinnati: Evander (Yellow Cards), O. Nwobodo (Red Card), K. Fletcher (Knee Injury), S. Gidi (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?
CF Montreal won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was FC Cincinnati to win.
What was the final score of CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?
CF Montreal 3-1 FC Cincinnati (full time).
When was CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?
CF Montreal played FC Cincinnati on Sun 27 Sep · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Saputo Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the xG differential and Cincinnati’s higher win probability, the logical read points to an away win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
