CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy: No clear edge
CF Montreal host Los Angeles Galaxy in a MLS clash where both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.3. The model sees a three‑way split, with each side’s win chance at 36.8% and the draw at 26.4%.
Both clubs come into this fixture with shaky form – Montreal have endured three defeats in five, while Galaxy have failed to win any of their last five league outings. The lack of recent success adds weight to a tight, caution‑driven encounter.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns identical 36.8% win chances to both sides and a lower 26.4% draw probability, indicating no decisive advantage for either club.
Show the maths
With CF Montreal averaging 1.3 expected goals and Los Angeles Galaxy averaging 1.3, the model gives a 52.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 47.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.6 (CF Montreal 1.3 + Los Angeles Galaxy 1.3) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.8% chance against 48.2% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CF Montreal at 36.8%, the draw at 26.4%, and Los Angeles Galaxy at 36.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CF Montreal
Montreal’s recent five‑game stretch reads DLLDD, highlighted by a 2‑2 draw with New England Revolution and a 1‑1 stalemate against DC United. Both results featured multiple goals, showing they can find the net but also concede, which underlines their inability to dominate – a factor that supports the even‑match outlook.
Los Angeles Galaxy
Galaxy have gone LLDDL, with a 1‑1 draw at San Jose Earthquakes and a goalless stalemate versus FC Dallas being the only points earned. Their three straight defeats, including a 0‑3 loss to Los Angeles FC, underline defensive frailties and a lack of offensive punch, reinforcing the notion that they are unlikely to break away decisively.
Head-to-Head
Recent head‑to‑head meetings favour Galaxy, highlighted by a 4‑0 win in July 2022, yet earlier matches were close (2‑1 in 2019, 3‑2 in 2016). The mixed record provides no consistent pattern, aligning with the model’s balanced probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2022 | Los Angeles Galaxy 4-0 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 22 Sep 2019 | Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 21 May 2018 | CF Montreal 0-1 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| 8 Apr 2017 | Los Angeles Galaxy 2-0 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 29 May 2016 | CF Montreal 3-2 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
CF Montreal: F. Amaya (Lower-Body Injury), W. Carmona (Knee Injury), B. Hidalgo (Groin Injury), E. Morales (Toe Injury)
Los Angeles Galaxy: R. Dalgado (Injury), R. Puig (Knee Injury), E. Thommy (Injury), M. Yamane (Hip Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
CF Montreal and Los Angeles Galaxy drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was No clear edge.
What was the final score of CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
CF Montreal 2-2 Los Angeles Galaxy (full time).
When was CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
CF Montreal played Los Angeles Galaxy on Sun 23 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Saputo Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With win probabilities identical and the draw the least likely outcome, the model does not spotlight a decisive favorite – the safest view is that the match is essentially even.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
