Charlotte vs Chicago Fire: Charlotte to win
Charlotte's 2.0 xG meets Chicago's 1.8, but the home side's recent consistency pushes the model to favor a Charlotte win at 43.3% probability.
Both teams arrive with contrasting recent form – Charlotte has been unbeaten in five, while Chicago has slipped to two defeats in their last five. The match pits Charlotte’s attacking rhythm against a Chicago side that has struggled to convert its chances.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns Charlotte a 43.3% chance to win, the highest single‑outcome probability, driven by their superior xG and unbeaten form.
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With Charlotte averaging 2.0 expected goals and Chicago Fire averaging 1.8, the model gives a 72.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 27.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.8 (Charlotte 2.0 + Chicago Fire 1.8) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 73.1% chance against 26.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Charlotte at 43.3%, the draw at 21.2%, and Chicago Fire at 35.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 8.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Charlotte
Charlotte’s last five league results read W‑D‑W‑D‑W, highlighted by a 2‑0 away win at Atlanta United and a 2‑1 away victory over DC United. Those wins, especially the recent 2‑1 success, show a knack for finding the net on the road, reinforcing confidence in their ability to secure a home win here.
Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire have recorded D‑D‑D‑L‑L, with a 2‑2 draw at Seattle and a 4‑4 thriller against Toronto FC indicating they can score but struggle to protect leads. The back‑to‑back losses to New England (1‑2) and Nashville (0‑3) suggest defensive frailties that Charlotte can exploit.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Chicago have edged Charlotte with three wins (including a 2‑1 victory on 2026‑08‑02) and two losses, but the recent 4‑3 win for Charlotte in 2024 shows the games can be high‑scoring and close, aligning with the model’s expectation of a competitive home win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2026 | Chicago Fire 2-1 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 29 Jun 2025 | Chicago Fire 3-2 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 17 May 2025 | Charlotte 1-4 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2 Oct 2024 | Charlotte 4-3 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 16 May 2024 | Chicago Fire 0-1 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Charlotte: N. Berchimas (Foot Injury), A. John (Upper-Body Injury), A. Goodwin (Injury), D. Schnegg (Yellow Cards)
Chicago Fire: A. Franco (Knee Injury), M. Mbokazi (Lower-Body Injury), A. Saletros (Lower-Body Injury), J. Bamba (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
Chicago Fire won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Charlotte to win.
What was the final score of Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
Charlotte 0-1 Chicago Fire (full time).
When was Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
Charlotte played Chicago Fire on Sun 27 Sep · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Bank of America Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given Charlotte’s unbeaten run and the statistical edge in both xG and defensive solidity, the model tilts toward a home victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
