Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo: Charlotte to win
Charlotte boast a 2.2 xG advantage over Houston’s 1.5, and the model backs a 53.5% chance they win. Houston’s recent form is solid, but Charlotte’s home scoring edge tilts the balance.
Both teams arrive with contrasting recent runs – Charlotte have turned a shaky start into two straight wins, while Houston sit on a three‑game winning streak before a slip‑up. The clash pits Charlotte’s home firepower against a Dynamo side that has been tight on the road.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns Charlotte a 53.5% chance to win versus Houston’s 26.0%, reflecting the superior home xG and recent scoring form.
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With Charlotte averaging 2.2 expected goals and Houston Dynamo averaging 1.5, the model gives a 69.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 31.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.7 (Charlotte 2.2 + Houston Dynamo 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 71.4% chance against 28.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Charlotte at 53.5%, the draw at 20.4%, and Houston Dynamo at 26.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 9.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Charlotte
Charlotte’s last five league results (L 1‑2 Chicago, W 3‑1 Columbus, D 3‑3 Toronto, W 3‑1 DC United, W 2‑0 Atlanta) show three wins with three‑goal margins and a single loss. The 3‑3 draw against Toronto demonstrates they can still leak goals, but the three straight wins – each with at least two goals scored – indicate a strong attacking trend that supports a home win pick.
Houston Dynamo
Houston’s recent five league outings (W 2‑0 New England, W 1‑0 LA Galaxy, W 1‑0 Vancouver, L 1‑2 St. Louis, D 0‑0 San Jose) feature three narrow wins, a loss, and a goalless draw. Scoring only one goal in three of those games shows limited firepower on the road, reinforcing the expectation that they will struggle to outscore Charlotte at home.
Head-to-Head
In the three most recent meetings, Charlotte have the edge 2‑1, winning 2‑1 in 2023 and 2‑1 in 2022, while Houston’s lone victory was a 1‑0 win in June 2024. This head‑to‑head record backs the pick of a Charlotte win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Houston Dynamo 1-0 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 8 Aug 2023 | Charlotte 2-1 Houston Dynamo | Leagues Cup |
| 4 Jul 2022 | Houston Dynamo 1-2 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Charlotte: N. Berchimas (Foot Injury), A. John (Upper-Body Injury), H. Toffolo (Hamstring Injury), A. Johnson (Injury)
Houston Dynamo: Lucas Halter (Yellow Cards), J. Maurer (Concussion), M. Saracchi (Lower-Body Injury), Felipe Andrade (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo?
Charlotte and Houston Dynamo drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Charlotte to win.
What was the final score of Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo?
Charlotte 0-0 Houston Dynamo (full time).
When was Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo?
Charlotte played Houston Dynamo on Sun 6 Sep · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Bank of America Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With Charlotte’s expected‑goal edge and a home advantage that has already produced multiple three‑goal hauls, the model’s win probability stands out as the clearest signal.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
