Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution: Over 2.5 goals
Chicago Fire average 2.0 xG at home against New England's 1.4 away, and the model backs an over‑2.5 goal game with 66% probability.
Both sides come into the match with contrasting recent runs – the Fire have two wins followed by three draws, while the Revolution have mixed results with two wins, two losses and a draw. Their encounter promises goals given the attacking output each side has shown in the last five matches.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 66% chance to over 2.5 goals, driven by the Fire’s 2.0 xG at home and the Revolution’s 1.4 xG away.
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With Chicago Fire averaging 2.0 expected goals and New England Revolution averaging 1.4, the model gives a 65.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 34.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Chicago Fire 2.0 + New England Revolution 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 66.0% chance against 34.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Chicago Fire at 51.5%, the draw at 21.7%, and New England Revolution at 26.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Chicago Fire
Chicago’s recent form of WWDDD includes a 2‑1 win over Portland at home and a 2‑1 win at Orlando, showing a capacity to score two goals against quality opponents. Their three consecutive draws – 1‑1 at New York, 2‑2 at Seattle and 4‑4 at Toronto – indicate they can also concede, reinforcing the likelihood of a high‑scoring affair.
New England Revolution
New England’s last five results feature a 3‑0 win at DC United and a 3‑1 victory at Columbus, both highlighting their ability to score three goals away. However, losses 1‑2 to Toronto and Los Angeles show they also leak goals, supporting a game with multiple goals on both sides.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the Fire have won twice (3‑2 in 2025 and 3‑1 in 2025) and drawn twice (2‑2 in 2025 and 1‑1 in 2024), with one 0‑1 loss, indicating a fairly even scoring record that aligns with an over‑2.5 goal outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 | New England Revolution 2-2 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 7 Sep 2025 | Chicago Fire 3-2 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 20 May 2025 | New England Revolution 1-3 Chicago Fire | US Open Cup |
| 5 May 2024 | Chicago Fire 0-1 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Mar 2024 | New England Revolution 1-1 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
Team News
Chicago Fire: A. Franco (Knee Injury), M. Mbokazi (Lower-Body Injury), C. Mueller (Inactive), J. Bamba (Lower-Body Injury)
New England Revolution: L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), J. Wynder (Inactive), L. Langoni (Lower-Body Injury), I. Feingold (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
Over 2.5 goals. The model assigns a 66% chance to over 2.5 goals, driven by the Fire’s 2.0 xG at home and the Revolution’s 1.4 xG away.
What does the model give Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Chicago Fire a 51.5% chance, the draw 21.7%, and New England Revolution 26.9% to win.
When is Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
Chicago Fire play New England Revolution on Sun 13 Sep · 22:30 BST in the MLS at Soldier Field.
Are there any injury concerns for Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
Chicago Fire: A. Franco (Knee Injury), M. Mbokazi (Lower-Body Injury), C. Mueller (Inactive), J. Bamba (Lower-Body Injury). New England Revolution: L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), J. Wynder (Inactive), L. Langoni (Lower-Body Injury), I. Feingold (Lower-Body Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With both teams capable of scoring and conceding, the most likely scenario is a match with more than two goals.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
