Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers: Chicago Fire to win
Chicago Fire's 2.0 xG meets Portland Timbers' 1.4 xG, while the model backs the Fire with a 51.5% win chance. Both sides are primed to find the net, but the Fire's edge is clear.
Both clubs come in with contrasting recent runs – Chicago has won three of their last five, while Portland has collected ten points from five games. The Fire will look to capitalise on home advantage, and the Timbers will try to keep their away strike rate alive.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns Chicago a 51.5% chance to win versus Portland's 26.9%, making the Fire the clear favorite.
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With Chicago Fire averaging 2.0 expected goals and Portland Timbers averaging 1.4, the model gives a 65.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 34.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Chicago Fire 2.0 + Portland Timbers 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 66.0% chance against 34.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Chicago Fire at 51.5%, the draw at 21.7%, and Portland Timbers at 26.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Chicago Fire
Chicago's recent form of WWLLW includes a 2‑0 away win over CF Montreal and a 2‑1 home win against Toronto FC, showing they can score and keep clean sheets. Their two recent defeats – 2‑3 at Inter Miami and 1‑3 at New York City FC – were high‑scoring, underscoring that when they lose, they still find the net, which supports the pick of a Fire win.
Portland Timbers
Portland's LWDWW sequence features a 5‑1 away thrashing of Seattle Sounders and a 2‑1 home win over Real Salt Lake, proving they can score heavily. However, their opening 1‑3 home loss to San Jose and a 2‑2 draw with FC Dallas show occasional defensive lapses, suggesting they may struggle to keep a clean sheet against Chicago.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Chicago has won two (2‑1 in 2024 and 2‑1 in 2023) while Portland has won two (4‑3 in 2026 and 3‑2 in 2019) and one match ended 0‑0 in 2025. The split indicates no clear dominance, but Chicago's recent home form tips the balance toward a Fire win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Chicago Fire 3-4 Portland Timbers | Friendlies Clubs |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Portland Timbers 0-0 Chicago Fire | Friendlies Clubs |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Portland Timbers 1-2 Chicago Fire | Friendlies Clubs |
| 22 Jun 2023 | Portland Timbers 1-2 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Aug 2019 | Portland Timbers 3-2 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Chicago Fire: C. Cupps (International duty), A. Franco (Knee Injury), M. Mbokazi (Lower-Body Injury), C. Mueller (Inactive)
Portland Timbers: A. Aravena (Hip Injury), G. Guerra (Abdominal strain), V. Janssen (Inactive), Z. McGraw (Back Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?
Chicago Fire won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Chicago Fire to win.
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?
Chicago Fire 2-1 Portland Timbers (full time).
When was Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?
Chicago Fire played Portland Timbers on Sun 16 Aug · 23:00 BST in the MLS at Soldier Field.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With the Fire's defensive solidity at home and a higher win probability than any other outcome, the model’s strongest signal points to a Chicago victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
