Colorado Rapids vs Austin FC: Skip – No edge
Colorado's 2.3 expected goals per game outpace Austin's 1.1, yet the market only tempts with Austin at 4.4. The model shows a 64.2% chance Colorado win versus a 22.7% implied probability for Austin, leaving no clear value.
Both teams sit in the lower half of the MLS table, making this August clash a pivotal moment for their playoff aspirations. Colorado looks to capitalize at home while Austin tries to claw back after a mixed run of form.
Jonesy's Verdict
Model probability for an Austin win (16.9%) is well below the market‑implied 22.7%, and no odds are offered for Colorado, leaving no value bet.
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With Colorado Rapids averaging 2.3 expected goals and Austin FC averaging 1.1, the model gives a 60.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Colorado Rapids 2.3 + Austin FC 1.1) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 66.0% chance against 34.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Colorado Rapids at 64.2%, the draw at 18.9%, and Austin FC at 16.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 9.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Colorado Rapids
Colorado’s recent run includes a 1‑0 win at Minnesota United, a 1‑0 home win over San Diego, but also three 1‑2 defeats (Real Salt Lake, FC Dallas, St. Louis City). The two clean‑sheet victories underscore their ability to win by a single goal, while the three narrow losses reveal a thin margin that keeps them from scoring more than one goal, supporting the model’s 2.3 xG but also highlighting defensive frailties.
Austin FC
Austin’s last five outings feature a 0‑5 loss at San Diego, a 0‑3 defeat at Houston, and a 0‑3 loss at St. Louis City, underscoring a porous defense that concedes three-plus goals. Their only bright spot is a 3‑1 home win over Seattle, showing they can score when in form, but the dominant trend of heavy defeats aligns with their low 1.1 xG and high 3.1 goals‑against average.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head‑to‑heads, Colorado has won three (2‑0, 1‑0, 2‑0) and Austin two (0‑2, 0‑1), with an average of 2.6 goals per match, reinforcing Colorado’s recent scoring edge but also indicating that both sides can breach each other’s defenses.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Jun 2025 | Colorado Rapids 0-2 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 9 Mar 2025 | Austin 0-1 Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Austin 3-2 Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Jun 2024 | Colorado Rapids 2-0 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 1 Oct 2023 | Colorado Rapids 1-0 Austin | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Colorado Rapids: M. Diop (Injury), R. Holding (Red Card), T. Ku-DiPietro (Shoulder Injury), Z. Steffen (Shoulder Injury)
Austin FC: J. Bell (Pelvis Injury), M. Desler (Achilles Tendon Injury), B. Hines-Ike (Muscle Injury), R. Taylor (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Colorado Rapids vs Austin FC?
Colorado Rapids won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Skip – No edge.
What was the final score of Colorado Rapids vs Austin FC?
Colorado Rapids 1-0 Austin FC (full time).
When was Colorado Rapids vs Austin FC?
Colorado Rapids played Austin FC on Sun 2 Aug · 02:30 BST in the MLS at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →The model’s 64.2% win probability for Colorado versus the market’s 22.7% implied for Austin shows the odds are mis‑priced, but without a solid Colorado price we have no actionable edge. The prudent move is to sit this one out.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
