Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal: Colorado Rapids to win
Colorado Rapids sit on a 1.9 xG edge over CF Montreal’s 1.3, and the model gives them a 51.5% chance to win. Both sides’ recent form and a 4‑1 head‑to‑head win this season tip the scales toward Denver.
The Rapids host CF Montreal in a clash that pits Colorado’s compact home defence against a Montreal side that has struggled on the road. With the Rapids boasting three clean‑sheet home games and Montreal conceding heavily away, the match promises a clear tactical divide.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model’s 51.5% win probability, bolstered by a superior xG rating and Montreal’s poor away form, makes a Rapids win the most credible outcome.
Show the maths
With Colorado Rapids averaging 1.9 expected goals and CF Montreal averaging 1.3, the model gives a 61.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 38.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 3.2 (Colorado Rapids 1.9 + CF Montreal 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 62.0% chance against 38.0% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Colorado Rapids at 51.5%, the draw at 22.4%, and CF Montreal at 26.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Colorado Rapids
Colorado’s last five league results read WWLWL, highlighted by a 2‑0 win over Sporting Kansas City at home, a 1‑0 home win versus Los Angeles FC, and a 1‑0 victory over Real Salt Lake. All three home games ended in clean sheets, meaning the Rapids have not allowed a goal at home this season, which underpins a strong defensive platform for a win.
CF Montreal
CF Montreal’s recent form is DWDLL, featuring a 1‑1 home draw with DC United, a 2‑1 away win at Columbus Crew, and a 2‑2 home draw with LA Galaxy. The away leg includes a crushing 1‑7 loss to Inter Miami and a 0‑2 defeat at Philadelphia Union, highlighting a porous defence that makes scoring against Colorado unlikely.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent meeting on 23 June, Colorado thrashed Montreal 4‑1, adding to earlier high‑scoring encounters like the 6‑3 win in 2019, indicating a clear pattern of Rapids dominance in head‑to‑head matches.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Jun 2024 | Colorado Rapids 4-1 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 10 Feb 2024 | CF Montreal None-None Colorado Rapids | Friendlies Clubs |
| 4 Aug 2019 | Colorado Rapids 6-3 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 7 Jul 2018 | CF Montreal 2-1 Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
| 1 Oct 2017 | Colorado Rapids 2-1 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Colorado Rapids: M. Diop (Knee Injury), T. Ku-DiPietro (Shoulder Injury), Z. Steffen (Shoulder Injury), H. Ojediran (Yellow Cards)
CF Montreal: F. Amaya (Lower-Body Injury), D. Pereira (Lower-Body Injury), B. Hidalgo (Groin Injury), E. Morales (Toe Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
Colorado Rapids won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Colorado Rapids to win.
What was the final score of Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
Colorado Rapids 1-0 CF Montreal (full time).
When was Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
Colorado Rapids played CF Montreal on Sun 13 Sep · 02:30 BST in the MLS at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Those numbers combine to make a strong case for a Rapids victory at home, especially given the recent 4‑1 head‑to‑head result that reinforces Colorado’s superiority.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
