Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal: Under 2.5 goals
Columbus Crew (xG 1.3) and CF Montreal (xG 1.3) arrive with identical scoring expectations, but the model tilts slightly toward fewer than 2.5 goals. Both sides have recent matches dominated by tight scorelines and defensive solidity.
The Crew head into this MLS clash after a mixed five‑game run (D‑W‑L‑W‑D) that has seen them concede just one goal at home on average. Montreal’s away form has been punctuated by low‑scoring draws and narrow defeats, hinting at a restrained offensive output.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a slight edge to the under, reflecting the crews’ low‑scoring tendencies and solid defensive records.
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With Columbus Crew averaging 1.3 expected goals and CF Montreal averaging 1.3, the model gives a 52.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 47.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.6 (Columbus Crew 1.3 + CF Montreal 1.3) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.8% chance against 48.2% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Columbus Crew at 36.8%, the draw at 26.4%, and CF Montreal at 36.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Columbus Crew
Columbus opened the five‑match stretch with a 1‑1 draw at Philadelphia, then bounced back with a 2‑0 home win over Atlanta United. After a 1‑2 home loss to New York City FC they recovered with a 2‑1 victory at home against FC Cincinnati, finishing with a 2‑2 draw at Inter Miami. The mix of tight defeats and low‑scoring draws indicates the Crew are capable of limiting goal totals, supporting an under‑2.5 outlook.
CF Montreal
Montreal began with a high‑scoring 4‑4 away draw against DC United, followed by a goalless home draw versus Toronto FC. They then suffered back‑to‑back 0‑1 defeats to Nashville SC (away) and Inter Miami (home), before ending with a 2‑2 home draw against New England Revolution. The prevalence of draws and single‑goal defeats shows Montreal’s attack has struggled to break the dead‑lock, bolstering the case for fewer than 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the crews have produced two draws (1‑1 in May 2025 and 0‑0 in April 2024) and three Columbus wins (2‑1, 3‑1, and 2‑1). The limited number of goals in these encounters, especially the two clean sheets, underpins the under‑2.5 prediction.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 May 2025 | CF Montreal 1-1 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Columbus Crew 2-1 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 15 May 2024 | CF Montreal 1-3 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Columbus Crew 0-0 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 22 Oct 2023 | Columbus Crew 2-1 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Columbus Crew: W. Abou Ali (Knee Injury), B. Mendez (Lacking Match Fitness), A. Gomes (Thigh Injury), B. Lennon (Groin Injury)
CF Montreal: F. Amaya (Lower-Body Injury), W. Carmona (Knee Injury), T. Gillier (Concussion), B. Hidalgo (Groin Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal?
CF Montreal won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal?
Columbus Crew 1-2 CF Montreal (full time).
When was Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal?
Columbus Crew played CF Montreal on Thu 20 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With both teams’ recent results and defensive numbers pointing toward modest tallies, the most logical read is a game that stays under the 2.5‑goal line.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
