Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution: Columbus Crew draw no bet
Columbus Crew head into the clash with a 1.3 xG edge over New England’s 1.2, and the model rates a Crew win at 38.9% versus 34.1% for the Revolution. With the Crew’s home defence conceding only 1.1 per game, a draw‑no‑bet on Columbus looks the safest bet.
Both sides come in on uneven recent runs – the Crew have slipped to three defeats in their last five, while the Revolution have managed just one win in the same span. The matchup pits Columbus’s modest home scoring record against New England’s leaky away defence, setting up a classic MLS tussle of narrow margins.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model’s 38.9% win probability plus a 27.0% draw chance give a 65.9% chance that Columbus avoids a loss, outpacing the Revolution’s 34.1% win odds.
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With Columbus Crew averaging 1.3 expected goals and New England Revolution averaging 1.2, the model gives a 50.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 49.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Columbus Crew 1.3 + New England Revolution 1.2) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Columbus Crew at 38.9%, the draw at 27.0%, and New England Revolution at 34.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Columbus Crew
In their last five matches the Crew have recorded a win, a draw and three losses (W 2‑1 vs Cincinnati, D 2‑2 vs Inter Miami, L 1‑3 vs Charlotte, L 1‑2 vs Montreal, L 2‑3 vs Nashville). The recent 2‑3 defeat away at Nashville shows they can still find the net but also concede heavily, indicating vulnerability that keeps the win probability modest and supports a draw‑no‑bet.
New England Revolution
New England’s five-game stretch includes a draw, two defeats, a win and another draw (D 2‑2 vs Montreal, L 0‑2 vs Houston, L 1‑2 vs Toronto, W 3‑0 vs DC United, D 1‑1 vs NYCFC). The 3‑0 win away at DC United proves they can explode offensively, yet the two consecutive losses away highlight defensive frailties that make a loss more likely than a win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings the Crew have outscored the Revolution 12‑5, highlighted by a 5‑1 victory in June 2024; the head‑to‑head trend favors Columbus and aligns with the draw‑no‑bet pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | New England Revolution 2-1 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Columbus Crew 1-2 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2 Mar 2025 | New England Revolution 0-1 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 12 Oct 2024 | Columbus Crew 4-0 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 29 Jun 2024 | New England Revolution 1-5 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Columbus Crew: W. Abou Ali (Knee Injury), S. Bangoura (Ankle Injury), R. Camacho (Yellow Cards), J. Thiare (Leg Injury)
New England Revolution: I. Feingold (Lower-Body Injury), L. Langoni (Lower-Body Injury), B. Raines (Yellow Cards), T. Smith (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution?
New England Revolution won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Columbus Crew draw no bet.
What was the final score of Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution?
Columbus Crew 1-3 New England Revolution (full time).
When was Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution?
Columbus Crew played New England Revolution on Sun 30 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →The combination of a slight xG advantage, superior home defence, and a modest draw probability makes a draw‑no‑bet on the Crew the most compelling single market.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
