Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls: Both teams to score - Yes
Columbus Crew's 1.4 xG meets New York Red Bulls' 1.3 xG, setting up a clash where goals are likely to flow both ways.
Both sides arrive on a shaky run – the Crew have endured four straight defeats before snapping a 3‑0 win, while the Red Bulls have failed to win in five, recording two draws and three losses. The recent form underlines a need for points, but more importantly it points to defensive frailties that could open the floodgates.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 54.8% chance to both sides scoring, and the comparable xG figures together with recent goal‑scoring form back that outlook.
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With Columbus Crew averaging 1.4 expected goals and New York Red Bulls averaging 1.3, the model gives a 54.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Columbus Crew 1.4 + New York Red Bulls 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Columbus Crew at 39.4%, the draw at 25.8%, and New York Red Bulls at 34.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Columbus Crew
Columbus’ last five league outings read LLLLW, highlighted by a 3‑0 home victory over Colorado Rapids that halted a four‑game losing streak. Earlier defeats – 1‑3 at Charlotte, 1‑2 to CF Montreal, 2‑3 at Nashville, and 1‑3 to New England – show a pattern of conceding multiple goals, indicating that even when they score, they often leave room at the back, supporting a BTTS outcome.
New York Red Bulls
New York’s recent form LLDLD includes a 1‑2 loss away at Atlanta United and a 1‑3 home defeat to Philadelphia Union, both games where they scored but also leaked heavily. Their 0‑1 loss to Nashville SC and 0‑0 draw at Seattle further underline that while they can keep games tight, they still manage to find the net in three of the last five matches, aligning with the BTTS prediction.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, each side has scored in three fixtures, including a 3‑2 Red Bulls win in May and a 3‑1 Crew victory in October, confirming that head‑to‑head history favors both teams finding the net.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 May 2026 | New York Red Bulls 3-2 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Columbus Crew 3-1 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 30 Aug 2025 | New York Red Bulls 0-0 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Columbus Crew None-None New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 3 Nov 2024 | New York Red Bulls 2-2 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Columbus Crew: W. Abou Ali (Knee Injury), S. Bangoura (Ankle Injury), R. Camacho (Foot Injury), J. Thiare (Leg Injury)
New York Red Bulls: A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), R. Mosquera (Thigh Injury), E. Lomdono (Injury), A. Mehmeti (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?
New York Red Bulls won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?
Columbus Crew 0-1 New York Red Bulls (full time).
When was Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?
Columbus Crew played New York Red Bulls on Sun 13 Sep · 00:30 BST in the MLS at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the balanced attack and the defensive lapses evident in the numbers, the most logical expectation is that both teams will breach each other's nets.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
