DC United vs New England Revolution: DC United to win
DC United hold a 53.8% edge over New England Revolution, backed by a 1.7 xG advantage and a recent home win against Toronto FC. The model’s top scorelines lean heavily toward a narrow United victory.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent runs – United have been hard to crack at home, while the Revolution have stumbled on the road. This clash pits United’s modest scoring edge against a Revolution defence that concedes nearly two goals per away game.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns United a 53.8% chance of victory, the highest single-market probability in the fixture.
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With DC United averaging 1.7 expected goals and New England Revolution averaging 1.0, the model gives a 51.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 48.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (DC United 1.7 + New England Revolution 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has DC United at 53.8%, the draw at 24.0%, and New England Revolution at 22.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 11.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
DC United
United’s last five league results read D‑D‑D‑W‑D, highlighted by a 2‑1 home win over Toronto FC and a 2‑2 draw with Nashville SC. Those recent points at home show United can convert chances into goals, supporting a win expectation here.
New England Revolution
The Revolution’s five-game stretch is L‑D‑W‑D‑L, featuring a 4‑1 home thrashing of Atlanta United but also a 0‑2 home loss to Houston Dynamo. The inconsistency, especially the recent defeats, suggests they are vulnerable away, bolstering the case for a United win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, United have won twice (3‑1 and 2‑1) while the Revolution have won twice (1‑0 and 2‑0) and one draw, indicating a balanced rivalry but recent United home success tips the scale toward United.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | New England Revolution 1-0 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 9 Aug 2025 | New England Revolution 2-0 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 28 May 2025 | DC United 1-1 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 5 Oct 2024 | New England Revolution 1-2 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 25 Feb 2024 | DC United 3-1 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
DC United: L. Bartlett (Yellow Cards), G. Segal (Leg Injury), C. Antley (Leg Injury), S. Nealis (Broken collarbone)
New England Revolution: L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), A. Farrell (Lower-Body Injury), I. Feingold (Lower-Body Injury), L. Langoni (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won DC United vs New England Revolution?
New England Revolution won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was DC United to win.
What was the final score of DC United vs New England Revolution?
DC United 0-3 New England Revolution (full time).
When was DC United vs New England Revolution?
DC United played New England Revolution on Thu 20 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Audi Field.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →All signs point to DC United edging the Revolution, making a straight win the most defensible selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
