Eintracht Braunschweig vs Union Berlin preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

DFB-Pokal · Round of 64 FT · Eintracht Braunschweig 2-4 Union Berlin Eintracht-Stadion

Eintracht Braunschweig vs Union Berlin: Eintracht Braunschweig to win

Eintracht Braunschweig's 1.35 xG edges Union Berlin's 1.10, and the model rates a home win at 42.5% versus a 30.5% away win probability.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Eintracht Braunschweig to win Lost

Strong · Home advantage

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — No Lost

50.6% model probability

Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Lost

55.7% model probability

The DFB‑Pokal showdown pits a Bundesliga side against a lower‑league outfit, but Braunschweig's expected‑goals advantage and a 42.5% win probability give them the statistical edge.

Robbo's Verdict

Strong

Eintracht Braunschweig to win Lost Slight lean Strong · Home advantage

The model assigns Braunschweig a 42.5% chance of victory versus Union's 30.5%, reflecting the home side's superior expected‑goals profile.

Show the maths

Braunschweig's expected goals of 1.35 versus Union's 1.10 creates a 0.25 xG gap. The model translates that gap into a 42.5% win probability for Braunschweig, while Union's win chance sits at 30.5% and the draw at 27.1%. Because the win probability exceeds both the draw and the opponent's win chance, the model flags a Braunschweig win as the most likely outcome.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — No (one side kept off the scoresheet) Lost 50.6% model probability

With Eintracht Braunschweig averaging 1.35 expected goals and Union Berlin averaging 1.1, the model gives a 50.6% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.4% it gives to both teams scoring.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Eintracht Braunschweig 1.35, Union Berlin 1.1) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 49.4% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 50.6% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Lost 55.7% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Eintracht Braunschweig 1.35 + Union Berlin 1.1) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 55.7% chance against 44.3% for Over.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Eintracht Braunschweig 1.35 + Union Berlin 1.1 = 2.5 combined): 44.3% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 55.7% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Eintracht Braunschweig at 42.5%, the draw at 27.1%, and Union Berlin at 30.5% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Eintracht Braunschweig expected goals

1.35

Union Berlin expected goals

1.1

Model BTTS probability

50.6%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.8%

21-0

11.6%

30-1

9.5%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Head-to-Head

In the five most recent meetings, Braunschweig won 3 (1‑0 in 2022, 1‑0 in 2018, 3‑1 in 2017) and Union Berlin won once (2‑0 in 2016) with one draw (1‑1 in 2017), reinforcing Braunschweig's historical advantage.

Date	Result	Competition
6 Jul 2022	Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Union Berlin	Friendlies Clubs
18 Feb 2018	Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Union Berlin	2. Bundesliga
15 Sep 2017	Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig	2. Bundesliga
8 May 2017	Eintracht Braunschweig 3-1 Union Berlin	2. Bundesliga
5 Dec 2016	Union Berlin 2-0 Eintracht Braunschweig	2. Bundesliga

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Eintracht Braunschweig vs Union Berlin?

Union Berlin won 4-2. Our pre-match pick was Eintracht Braunschweig to win.

What was the final score of Eintracht Braunschweig vs Union Berlin?

Eintracht Braunschweig 2-4 Union Berlin (full time).

When was Eintracht Braunschweig vs Union Berlin?

Eintracht Braunschweig played Union Berlin on Sun 23 Aug · 14:30 BST in the DFB-Pokal at Eintracht-Stadion.

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With the home side's xG advantage and a clear win probability lead, the logical read is a Braunschweig victory.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups