FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC: FC Dallas to win
FC Dallas's 2.0 expected goals and a 53.6% win probability give them the edge over LAFC, whose 1.3 xG and 24.7% win chance lag behind.
Both clubs arrive with mixed recent form, but Dallas have been more efficient in front of goal, while LAFC have struggled to convert chances away from home.
Jonesy's Verdict
Dallas's superior expected goals and a 53.6% model win probability make a home win the most probable outcome.
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With FC Dallas averaging 2.0 expected goals and Los Angeles FC averaging 1.3, the model gives a 62.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 37.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.3 (FC Dallas 2.0 + Los Angeles FC 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 64.0% chance against 36.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has FC Dallas at 53.6%, the draw at 21.6%, and Los Angeles FC at 24.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
FC Dallas
Dallas’s last five league results (DWWWD) include a 4-3 home win over Sporting Kansas City and a 2-1 home victory versus Portland Timbers, showing they can score and hold leads. Their most recent 0-0 draw at home against Austin indicates defensive solidity, reinforcing the view that they can secure at least a win here.
Los Angeles FC
LAFC’s five-game stretch (DDWLD) features a 2-0 home win over New York Red Bulls but also a 1-3 away loss to Sporting Kansas City and consecutive 2-2 draws away at Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes, suggesting they struggle to break down defenses on the road. This inconsistency lowers their win probability in Dallas.
Head-to-Head
Recent head‑to‑head meetings favor Dallas, with a 3-1 win in September 2024 and a 1-1 draw in August 2025, while LAFC’s only recent victory was a 1-0 win in March 2026, indicating Dallas have the historical edge.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Los Angeles FC 1-0 FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 24 Aug 2025 | FC Dallas 1-1 Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer |
| 13 Jul 2025 | Los Angeles FC 2-0 FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 22 Sep 2024 | FC Dallas 3-1 Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2 Jun 2024 | Los Angeles FC 1-0 FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
FC Dallas: Geovane Jesus (Knee Injury), A. A. Julio Santos (Injury), O. Urhoghide (Yellow Cards), Daniel (Hamstring Injury)
Los Angeles FC: T. Hasal (Arm Injury), T. Tillman (Injury), R. Porteous (Leg Injury), E. Segura (Leg Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC?
FC Dallas won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was FC Dallas to win.
What was the final score of FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC?
FC Dallas 1-0 Los Angeles FC (full time).
When was FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC?
FC Dallas played Los Angeles FC on Sun 27 Sep · 01:30 BST in the MLS at Toyota Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →The combination of higher xG, a stronger win probability, and a superior attacking record points to a Dallas victory on their home turf.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
